Peak Oil News

During the last weeks disturbing news has been showing the dark side of human nature in face of these new rough times: all across the state, from north to south, littoral to interior, gasoline and diesel theft is spreading like fire. The black market is thriving with people selling diesel and gasoline for 1 €/litre. Right: A tank like this can hold up to 1000 litres of diesel, which at today's prices is worth arround 1400 €. Photo by Getty Images . [break] Crossposted at the European Tribune . The word spreads by mouth that someone at some obscure place has gasoline or diesel to sell at prices not seen for years. A tempting offer, when these fuels are sold for 1.5 €/litre and 1.4 €/litre respectively at filling stations. But these fuels have simply been stolen from the same people buying them: the end consumer. The first news started to come from the north, in the city of Braga, with regular thefts from parked lorries during the night. But now reports are coming from almost everywhere, from the big city centres to the isolated interior of Portugal. The preferred targets are lorries with tanks large enough to hold 500 to 1000 litres of fuel. During the night thieves approach and force the tank open, then run in a small tube connected to a manual pump that moves the fuel to a hand held jerrycan or similar container. When the opening offers resistance the tank is simply pierced with a pickaxe or other sharp metal tool. In this case, after the jerrycans have been filled ..

Newsday.com The fear is that all the easy-to-reach crude has been found. These may be 'the good old days,' one expert says. By Elizabeth Douglass With gasoline and oil costing once-unthinkable barrels of cash, the notion that things in our petroleum-addicted world soon will get worse -- maybe much, much worse -- is spreading fast. Fear pushed oil to $131.04 a barrel in New York futures trading Monday, closing $2.16 higher after tumbling more than $16 last week. Supply concerns drove the increase as the market fretted about the potential for Tropical Storm Dolly to harm Gulf of Mexico oil operations. But behind today's oil mania lies a deeper dread: that the world has found all the easy-to-reach oil, and the daily supply of the essential black goo will fall further and further behind escalating global demand. "As much as you're uncomfortable with today's oil prices, these are going to be the good old days," oil expert Robert L. Hirsch told a recent Santa Barbara gathering of policymakers and environmentalists. "We're talking about pain here that is unimaginable." The day-to-day cost of oil reflects a sharply weaker dollar, market speculation and geopolitical events such as unrest in Nigeria and other oil-exporting countries. At the same time, producers are barely slaking the world's energy thirst, and the market increasingly is fixated on the long-term supply picture. Adding to the angst, several industry heavyweights caution that above-ground issues -- including instability ..

abc.net.au Predictions that oil production will peak in a few years' time and then taper off have been dismissed by a leading geoscientist. Dr Peter McCabe, from the CSIRO, says predictions of a peak oil phenomenon date back to the 1920s but are no more relevant today than they were then. He claims it's geopolitical problems in oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and Venezuela that's pushing up oil prices, rather than dwindling supply. Dr McCabe was a member of the US Geological Survey Assessment of global oil supplies, and says the figures show oil will last for many decades to come. "We have produced about 35 per cent of the world's conventional oil, and we are producing about one per cent of that oil per year, so we have about 65 years left of producing at the current level of world production."

Over the last few weeks, I've been trying to wrap my head around the recent excitement over our domestic production. Whether the topic of drilling in ANWR or the outer continental shelf came up, people were getting excited. There are a few problems, however. For starters, Congress needs to lift their drilling ban. But for argument's sake, let's pretend (no matter how unlikely you find it) the drilling restrictions were lifted by the end of 2008. We still wouldn't see a drop of oil for the next five to ten years. I'm always asked whether or not the government will open up drilling in those two areas. I believe it's only a matter of time. The reason is simple enough. The biggest challenge for alleviating our oil addiction is to decrease the amount of oil we import. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. imported 13.4 million barrels of oil per day. I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be surprised to learn that nearly six million barrels per day of those imports came from OPEC producers. One of the best ways to decrease our dependence on Middle Eastern oil is to develop more of our domestic resources. Ten years to see production just isn't enough. Fortunately for us, there's an oil boom already happening in North Dakota. Drilling the Bakken Oil Fields I'll admit it has been a while since we last talked about the Bakken formation . With approximately 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, producers have been scrambling to get acrea..

Editor's Note: With gasoline prices now at $4 per gallon, two new energy proposals are attracting a lot of attention on the airwaves - the Pickens Plan and Newt Gingrich's "Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay Less." plan. But did you know that we've had an energy plan on the books for months now? It was developed by Chris Nelder and Brian Hicks. They released their plan to the public last May... and it consistently ranks #1 on Amazon in popularity. In short, the Nelder-Hicks plan could save the US economy from disaster... and make many investors a fortune. To see their plan, go here . Today's Energy and Capital: The One Energy Stock You Must Own What makes domestic oil production companies even more attractive as long-term investments are the oil and gas discoveries, and the fact that these explorations are more appealing, given geopolitical tension. You know as well as we do that prices would come down sharply if we started producing on our own. And it'd be a strong global signal that we're not willing to be hostages of oil rich companies. Even the President agrees. "Our problem in America gets solved when we aggressively go for domestic exploration," Bush said. And we need all the oil we can get. While the International Energy Agency's oil supply forecast won't be released until November 2008, there's growing fear of a sharp downward revision in supplies. That means supply could be much tighter than previously thought, a nightmare scenario if proven true. Any pessimistic IEA view w..

Stephen Leeb makes the interesting suggestion that we re-think "BRIC" - Brazil, Russia, India and China and substitute "BRAC" - Brazil, Russia, Australia and Canada, i.e. substitute emerging countries with resource rich countries. I like the idea for diversification as well. You never can tell who's about to nationalize, seize, go carbon-bonkers, or drink themselves silly (that would be the Australians, though come to think of it the Russians also qualify). There are some well run, resource rich stocks in BRAC, among them Petrobras, Lukoil, Woodside Petroleum, Santos, Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, Imperial Oil, or, as the article highlights, the country ETFs: EWZ, RSX, EWA and EWC. istockanalyst: Changing BRIC for BRAC . Quotes: "The currencies of countries rich in essential resources—oil and other fuels, metals, agricultural products—are in strong demand," says long-standing market expert Stephen Leeb. The editor of The Complete Investor explains, "Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada are awash in natural resources. And in a world of growing shortages, these countries can't miss." "The acronym 'BRIC—standing for Brazil, Russia, India, and China—is in vogue as shorthand for the emergence of the developing world. "But we’re herewith proposing an emended version: 'BRAC'—standing for Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada. "That’s because these four countries are the ones most brimming over with essential natural resource, with each one a net exporter of fuel..

Well, this isn't good : The Purdue committee, which includes representatives from other schools, said that in a follow-up paper published in 2006 in Physical Review Letters, Taleyarkhan falsely claimed that his 2002 work had been independently confirmed. The panel also found that in a pair of 2005 papers, Taleyarkhan added another person as an author even though that researcher did not substantially contribute. ... "From small beginnings there developed a tangled web of wishful thinking, scientific misjudgment, institutional lapses and human failings," the committee wrote. "Each strand could have been resolved separately, but knitting them together produced a crisis."

Days ago Euan got a ping from London based journalist Jonathan Ossoff: We've tracked down a lot of statistics that demonstrate just how remarkable oil is as a resource, but we're having a bit of trouble synthesizing and contextualizing that data to get a usable understanding of how oil compares to, say, human labour, or a hydroelectric plant, as an energy source. This query prompted an interesting discussion among the TOD staff on the comparison of human labour to oil. Right: Bradley Wiggins , one of today's top endurance athletes. He can sustain a power output of about 500 watts for extended periods of time. But how significant is that number? [break] Nate was the first to provide an answer: This has been argued and debated often on TOD, mainly in response to some of my own quotes in media about 1 barrel equating to 25,000 hours of human labour (12.5 years at 40 hours per week). Ultimately the answer to this question depends highly on assumptions - but we can arrive at a good approximation. 1 barrel equates to 6.1 Gigajoules (5.8 million BTUs) . Depending on the 'job', humans use roughly 100-700 Kilocalories per hour (Computer work requires an estimated 119.3 Kcals/hr). 1 kilocalorie (Kcal) = 4,184 joules. So 1 barrel of oil has 6.1 billion/4,184 = 1,454,459 kcals. Using a range of 100-700 kcals per human hour of work then results in a range 2078 and 14544 hours per barrel of oil. At 2000 hours per year (40*50), this is would then be 1.0-7.25 years per barrel. This was disc..

Chalk another one up to clean technology. Legendary Texas oilman, billionaire and America's 117 th richest person, T. Boon Pickens, has unveiled a $58 million public relations blitz focused on persuading Americans to reduce their dependence on foreign oil by turning increasingly to natural gas and wind. Called The Pickens Plan , the project calls for an estimated $1 trillion government investment to displace electricity currently produced with natural gas with clean wind power. Then, the resultant excess natural gas capacity would be used to power cars and trucks. T. Boone, the plan's creator, says it would alleviate hundreds of billions of dollars currently spent on oil while creating thousands of U.S. jobs. According to Pickens, ""I've drilled more dry holes and also found more oil than just about anyone in the industry. With all my experience, I've never been as worried about our energy security as I am now." But don't get it twisted. Pickens isn't hugging trees just yet. It's all about the bottom line, and T. Boone is heavily vested in both the wind and natural gas industries. In fact, he's spending $12 billion on what could prove to be the world's biggest wind farm—in Texas, of all places. Another of his ventures, Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE), builds and operates natural gas fueling stations for vehicles. Said Pickens: "Don't get the idea that I've turned green, my business is making money, and I think this is going to make a lot of money." Making Money with ..

CNBC: Oil's Biggest 3-Day Drop In 5 years . I'm surprised there was little mention in this video of the supply and demand factor. Yesterday we saw a big build in crude and today a decent build in natural gas. The huge move in oil and natural gas that started early this year was about supply and demand, as a colder than average winter cut into natural gas supplies and pulled on heating oil supplies, which, combined with demand for diesel, pulled up crude prices. We are now facing the other side of the supply demand equation, the one where supply is starting to build instead of declining. And price wise, neither natural gas nor crude looks like it's ready to make a stand today, they look like they have further to drop. Chart wise, I'm guessing natural gas could pull back to $9.50 and oil to $120, though crude at $110 wouldn't shock me at all. On the other hand, looking ahead further, if we get another cold winter, I think we revisit the highs. This summer feels like a mild one, and I think back to this quote from a few posts ago: The question Coxe raises, and one we cannot answer, is whether the lack of sunspot activity in this cycle portends a trend to cooler weather, shorter growing seasons, and increased space heating demands – or is it just a statistical fluke? Investment Implications Coxe argues that if the lack of solar activity is not a statistical fluke natural gas would be a ‘pure play' on this event due to the huge amount of natural gas used for space heating in N..

The number crunchers have it wrong. Energy isn't a chart; it's a culture. Sure, Amsterdam is flat as a pancake. Still, yesterday I couldn't believe I saw more bicyclists in the Dutch capital than I ever had in my time in China, where filmstrips we all saw for years portrayed throngs of Beijing denizens pedaling the streets full. Nary a car to be found in Amsterdam in 2008, and the Chinese capital is clogged with Buicks and SUVs. It's taken me two weeks from Portugal to Germany, watching wind turbines blink and spin slowly as I sit aboard trains that have entire wagons devoted to bikes. You see a lot of guys in suits on CNBC and such talking about their usually incorrect predictions for oil supply and demand: how much is speculation and how much is pure market movement... But what I'll tell you, and what you can put your money on, is that Europe is going green. The Global Greening of Energy and Investments Investment powerhouse Merrill Lynch and leading consulting firm Capgemini released their World Wealth Report in June, which showed among other things that the world's most successful people are going green in ever greater numbers. Among the high net-worth individuals—people with more than $1 million in value where their homes are not included—half say they're putting money into clean and renewable energy business opportunities. What's interesting, though, is that the world's wealthy didn't cite the melting of the icecaps or food price concerns as their reasons f..

Al Gore has made a major speech in Washington this morning, setting out an ambitious goal for the USA to produce all of its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2020. I thought I'd comment on the technical feasibility of the plan, and the underlying economics of such an endeavour. from the Department of Energy's recently published study about bringing wind power to 20% of total generation The short answer is: while 100% is probably unrealistic, it's not unreasonable to expect to be able to get pretty close to that number (say, in the 50-90% range) in that timeframe, and it is very likely that it makes a LOT of sense economically. Disclosure (or reminder) : I am an investment banker for the energy sector. I do a lot of work with the wind sector, as the posts in my wind power series attest, but not only. Whether a pipeline or a wind farm, the job of a project financier is to ensure that the projects make sense for all interested parties (including the regulator) in the long run, and wind projects have to meet the same hurdles as other power plants or oil fields. Thus I'm supposed to remain level-headed when discussing wind projects! [break] Today, the USA generates roughly 4,000 TWh of electricity from close to 1,000 GW of installed capacity: It is important to note right away that MWs of capacity and MWhs of generated electricity are by no means proportional. There is more gas-fired capacity than coal-fired capacity (440GW vs 330GW), but coal-fired plants generate two and ..

(An homage to John Perry Barlow) If it weren't such a desperately serious situation, watching our fearless leaders trying to grapple with the energy and financial crises would be hilarious. Anyone with more than $100,000 in their bank accounts must be having some sleepless nights right about now, as the failure of overextended financial institutions continues its brutal cascade. The federal seizure of IndyMac, and the potential federal intervention into Fannie and Freddie, have somewhat dampened the fallout, but Congress' response on Monday to Sec. Paulson's plan was tepid. As I have discussed in previous articles, by the numbers there is still a long way to fall before we hit bottom. Merrill Lynch warned yesterday that the flagging faith in US financial institutions may hasten that long-dreaded day when Asia, Russia and the Middle East start dumping dollars and refuse to continue buying $700 billion of our debt every year to keep our listing ship afloat. According to Brian Bethune, the chief financial economist at Global Insight, the situation is even worse: If the US Treasury does not push through a rescue of Fannie and Freddie within a mere two or three days , he said, it risks a financial crisis that spirals out of control. "We can't dither," he warned. "The markets can be brutal. We have to break the chain of contagion before confidence is destroyed." Free-market champions like Larry Kudlow have argued that a $1.4 trillion Fannie and Freddie bailout would only increase ..

Middle East Online With the arrival of peak oil production, the oil coming out of the oilfields is of lesser quality and costs more energy to obtain, says Pedro Prieto. Interview with Pedro Prieto by Alex Fernandez Muerza Since 2006, Spain's membership in ASPO has been represented by AEREN, the Association for the Study of Energy Resources. ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) is a network of organizations in more than 20 countries dedicated to the study of peak oil - the moment at which maximum oil production is reached and afterwards begins its decline. Its Vice President, Pedro Prieto (Madrid, 1950), doesn't mince words: he stresses that no more than three decades worth of oil remain, insists that the energy situation in Spain is dire, that the days of gas and nuclear power are numbered as well, and insists that the defenders of renewable energy are well removed from reality. In his opinion, without a reduction in the consumption of energy and a radical change in the present development model, it's impossible to tackle the approaching energy and social crisis. In October, ASPO will hold its 7th annual conference in Barcelona. Is the strike by the truckers and fishing fleets over higher fuel costs a symptom of the end of oil? It's one more episode that will happen more often as it's confirmed that worldwide oil production has reached its peak, without a predictable substitute on the horizon for oil (and no time to think of one), which is being consumed at the rate ..

AlterNet By Michelle Nijhuis James Howard Kunstler's new novel describes a small town in upstate NY where a chain of global crises has forced the community to fend for itself. Author and social critic James Howard Kunstler, known for predicting our post-peak-oil future in nonfiction works such as The Long Emergency , has also brought his forecasts to life through fiction. His newest novel, World Made By Hand , describes the near future in a small town in upstate New York -- not unlike the place Kunstler himself lives today -- where a chain of global crises has forced the community to fend for itself. Despite the tragedy and violence that surround his characters, Kunstler says his vision of the future isn't nearly as grim as it might seem. "I resent the idea that I'm an apocalyptarian," he says. "I'm describing changes that we face, but I'm hardly proposing that it's the end of the world. It may be the end of the Wal-Mart experience, it may be the end of see-the-USA-in-your-Chevrolet -- but that ain't the end of the world." Grist recently spoke with Kunstler about prophesying -- and preparing for -- life after Wal-Mart. Michelle Nijhuis: So you've wrestled with peak oil, climate change, and disease in nonfiction books. Why did you decide to address them in a novel? James Howard Kunstler: I wanted to present a very vivid experience for readers, so they could feel what it might be like, sense what it might be like, to live in this post-oil world -- a world in which the tyranny ..

USATODAY.com By Dan Reed Get ready, America, T. Boone Pickens is coming to your living room. The legendary Texas oilman, corporate raider, shareholder-rights crusader, philanthropist and deep-pocketed moneyman for conservative politicians and causes, wants to drive the USA's political and economic agenda. "We're paying $700 billion a year for foreign oil. It's breaking us as a nation, and I want to elevate that question to the presidential debate, to make it the No. 1 issue of the campaign this year," Pickens says. Today, Pickens will take the wraps off what he's calling the Pickens Plan for cutting the USA's demand for foreign oil by more than a third in less than a decade. To promote it, he is bankrolling what his aides say will be the biggest public policy ad campaign ever. The website, pickensplan.com, goes live today. Jay Rosser, Pickens' ever-present public relations man, promises that Pickens' face will be seen on Americans' televisions this fall almost as frequently as John McCain's and Barack Obama's. FIND MORE STORIES IN: United States | California | Barack Obama | John McCain | Cold War | General Electric | Gulf War | Great Plains | Midland | Amarillo | Texas Panhandle | Odessa | President Eisenhower | T. Boone Pickens | Pampa | Permian Basin | Public Utility Commission | Gulfstream G550 | Nolan County | Sweetwaters "Neither presidential candidate is talking about solving the oil problem. So we're going to make 'em talk about it," Pickens says. "Nixon said in 1970..

News-Record.com By Morgan Josey Glover Aaron Newton has a foot in two worlds. Four days a week, the 33-year-old husband and father of two works as a land planner in Concord. In his free time, Newton prepares for a time when energy could become unreliable or too expensive for his family. “I don’t know exactly what is going to happen because I don’t know what that future is going to look like,” Newton said. “It’s important to be flexible.” Opinions differ among economists, petroleum industry experts and grassroots activists about the challenges that declining oil supplies could present to the American way of life. But across the country, people who believe global oil production will soon peak and go into permanent decline are pushing for a transformation in how we grow food, transport people and build homes. Newton represents a segment of Americans who now envision their lives in a post-peak world. Below, the Newton family and other North Carolinians share their stories: Straddling the ages Jennifer Newton never imagined that at age 35 she would eat out of a dorm-size refrigerator, grow unfamiliar produce in her backyard or discuss electricity-free kitchens with her husband. But now, much of the Newton household revolves around making it less dependent on fossil fuels, especially when it comes to diet. “I’m not in denial, but I guess part of me thinks it’s not going to be as bad as he thinks it is,” said Jennife..

lewrockwell.com By Charley Reese Once again, I suspect we are stuck with $4-a-gallon gasoline for the foreseeable future. That's $4 and more, I should say. I see nothing on the horizon that would lower the price. Certainly the political rhetoric coming from both Democrats and Republicans will not do it. There are several roosting chickens that are the cause of the high price. First, there is the devalued U.S. dollar. Our dollar is just piece of paper, backed by or tied to nothing. Therefore, its purchasing power depends in a large part on how many dollars are in circulation. When lots of dollars chase relatively fewer goods, prices go up. We call that inflation. When there are more goods than dollars to buy them, prices go down. We call that deflation. For many years now, Congress has been spending more than it takes in. That excess is borrowed from the Federal Reserve, which creates its money out of thin air with a keystroke. The borrowed dollars are then spent into the economy, along with all the borrowed dollars spent by the private sector. While the money supply can be increased with a keystroke and a vote in Congress, goods and services have to be created by labor and capital. It's no surprise that there is soon more money than there are goods and services. People with oil to sell want to compensate for the lost purchasing power of the dollar, so that's part of the price increase. That's chicken No. 1. Demand is chicken No. 2. When demand exceeds supply, the price will ..

Rutland Herald Online By Carl Etnier The newly seceded United States took seven year to move from the 1776 Declaration of Independence to the Treaty of Paris, in which Great Britain ceded control of the land east of the Mississippi to the young country. In 1973, Richard Nixon set another seven-year challenge: the U.S. would achieve independence from foreign sources of energy by the end of the decade. Thirty five years later, the U.S. energy dependence has dramatically increased. Crude oil imports, for example, have more than tripled. In a new book, journalist and author Robert Bryce argues that the hope for energy independence is fraught with “dangerous delusions.” Bryce’s arguments in “Gusher of Lies” provide a refreshing counterpoint to many simplistic, political discussions about energy, but in the end, his blithe optimism about fossil fuel availability, U.S. financial resources, and global warming’s consequences leaves his arguments as dangerously deluded as those he criticizes. Bryce pulls no punches in criticizing dreams of energy independence: “Energy independence is hogwash. From nearly any standpoint — economic, military, political, environmental — energy independence makes no sense. Worse yet, the inane obsession with the idea of energy independence is preventing the U.S. from having an honest and effective discussion about the energy challenges it now faces… “Regardless of the ongoing fears about o..

It is always good to have a plan. It's not, however, good to have a bad plan. That was my initial reaction last month when the President gave Congress several steps to reduce gas prices and foreign oil dependence . What was his plan? Two of the steps involved the developing oil shales and opening up ANWR. Well, you know how we feel about those two. For starters, both will take decades to develop. I've already cautioned readers about how complicated the Colorado oil shales can get. As far as ANWR production is concerned, let's just chalk it up as a case of too little, too late. Due to a lack of infrastructure and development, production from ANWR wouldn't begin for about a decade. One of the other recommendations was to open up more of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Drilling in the OCS has been restricted by Congress for over two decades. Drilling the Outer Continental Shelf This week, President Bush came out swinging. On Monday, he lifted the presidential ban on offshore oil drilling. Unfortunately, the move won't have the effect a few believed it would. Naturally, the act alone does nothing more than pressure Congress to lift its own offshore drilling ban. Don't hold your breath if you're waiting for Congress to do the same. So what was the reason for the President's action? Are they expecting oil prices to go down tomorrow because a few billion barrels of oil (which will take years to even start production) was opened up? Perhaps they thought that lifting the ban would..

I'm a bit of an agonistic on gold, but you can't bury your head in the sand and ignore it. Compounding financial crisis, inflation, printing money... gold is in. CNBC: Commodities Explosion .

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown - from zero to hero? .... to set ourselves on a new energy path - a path from our economies that are today over-dependent on oil towards the post-oil energy economies of the future . And moving towards this sustainable energy economy helps us meet our economic, political and environmental goals. The stuff of Statesmanship? From a speech made by Gordon Brown on 13th July at The Union for the Mediterranean Summit . The whole speech is below the fold. My emphasis added. [break] At this summit the 27 nations of the European Union and our Mediterranean neighbours pledge ourselves to take action to promote our mutual prosperity, security, liberty and democracy. We must now leave behind the old wasteful, oil dependent ways of yesterday and embrace the new cleaner and sustainable energy future of tomorrow. The increases in oil and food prices we have seen over recent months are causing hardship to families and businesses in Britain and throughout Europe. They threaten economic instability and their production is environmentally not sustainable. The years of cheap energy and careless pollution are behind us. We need a new strategy. Past total dependence on oil must give way to a clean energy future. I have called for a better dialogue between oil producers and consumers and a more transparent market, and for measures to increase investment in oil production and refining. Following the meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia last month we will take these in..

The July 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.34 MB, 22 pp). In this edition I have added biofuels, monthly production revision charts and a barrel to BTU conversion section. Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production excluding biofuels January 2004 - May 2008 A summary and latest graphics below the fold. [break] Latest Developments: 1) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 272,000 b/d from March to April. Overall crude oil production statistics have been revised downwards, leading to a lower all time high crude oil production of 74.59 million b/d that still stands at February 2008. 2) Total liquids - not updated A selection of charts from this edition: Figure 2 - World weighed average price of oil in dollars and euro's January 2001 - 4 July 2008 Figure 3 - World Biofuels Production January 2004 - May 2008 Figure 4 - World Liquids Fuel Production including biofuels January 2002 - May 2008 Figure 5 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 - April 2008 Figure 6 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production January 2002 - April 2008

Editor's Note: While some of you may know Ian Cooper from past options trading services, his 4,500% cumulative gains of 2007, and gains such as these... Fremont General September 2007 12.50 puts - 291% in 16 days Lennar January 2008 25 puts - 279% in 40 days Pulte January 2008 15 puts - 224% in 40 days New Century January 2008 25 puts - 214% in 16 days Centex January 2008 25 puts - 207% in 40 days Countrywide January 2008 27.50 puts - 203% in 69 days Thornburg October 20 2007 puts - 188% in 6 days MGIC Investments December 35 puts - 175% in 80 days Capital One January 2008 65 puts - 160% in 59 days Accredited Home September 2007 7.50 puts - 141% in 4 days Hovnanian November 2007 17.50 puts - 136% in 13 days Radian Group August 2007 60 puts - 122% in 19 days Standard Pacific September 2007 15 puts - 111% in 2 days Autonation January 2008 20 puts - 105% in 49 days New Century January 2008 25 puts - 89% in 1 day ...he's decided to launch a new options service, Options Trading Pit, which will look to profit from the market's demise and well as its upside. In fact, he's been beta testing new strategies in the Options Pit blog, sitting with gains like these: Expedia Inc. October 22.50 put: 189% in 31 trading days Coca Cola Enterprises November 20 put: 271% in 31 trading days Masco Corporation October 20 put: 92% in 27 trading days Lehman Brothers Holdings October 20 put: 313% in 27 trading days UBS AG September 22.50 put: 165% in 21 trading days Walt Disney Company October 27.50 p..

Last month, the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) announced that U.S. commuters took 2.6 billion trips on public transportation in the first three months of 2008.   That's nearly 85 million more trips than the first quarter of 2007. APTA also announced that: ·         Last year, 10.3 billion trips were taken on U.S. public transportation.   This represents the highest number of trips taken in 50 years. ·         In the first quarter of 2008, use of public transportation increased by 3.3 percent, while vehicle miles traveled on our nation's roads declined by 2.3 percent. ·         Light rail systems had the highest increase in ridership, boasting a 10.3 percent increase in the first quarter.   Baltimore's light rail system alone increased its ridership by 16.8 percent. Still, while these are all impressive numbers, how realistic is it that these ridership numbers will continue to increase? Even with $4.00 gas, there are many that still have absolutely no interest in public transportation.   Whether it's because of misconceptions about dirty or unsafe buses and trains, the comfort and familiarity of our own cars, or the inability of local mass transit administrations to provide convenient, efficient, and inexpensive alternatives - not everyone is jumping on the public transportation bandwagon. In fact, in a recent Bal..

Pain at the pump is finally putting energy on the front burner in this election season, but media coverage of the issue has been fraught with misinformation. I hate to say it, but I am beginning to think some of the confusion is intentional. From the news that Cheney's office has interfered with reporting on climate change science (what a shocker!), to the assertions of some pundits that there are 12 trillion barrels of oil yet to recover out there, to assertions by politicians that we can drill our way to energy independence, it's tough for the average person to get a real grip on the issues. Confusion breeds apathy, and that's not something we can afford anymore. I believe that the impending energy crisis is too urgent to allow misinformation about peak oil to go unanswered. So I am attempting to set the record straight. For this week's Energy and Capital column, I am publishing a formal rebuttal to a May editorial on peak oil in Investor's Business Daily , which got the facts about peak oil-as I understand them-badly wrong. It refers to a companion piece which has just been published, a " Peak Oil Media Guide " that I developed for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil - USA . I hope my readers will find these two pieces helpful in separating fact from fiction about peak oil. Until next time, Chris To the editors of Investor's Business Daily : I feel compelled to respond to your editorial of May 28, 2008, entitled " Peak Oil: An Idea Whose Time Is Up ." For a respecte..

The title will hopefully make some readers choke on their coffee and spill the remains in their cup all over their computer(s). Click on all charts to enlarge [Editor's note: Rune Likvern the Norwegian energy man otherwise known as nrgyman2000 or NGM2 has joined TOD E as a contributor. Welcome aboard Rune.] [break] One thing that caught my attention some time back was the perceived lack of interest for energy questions, usage and supplies within the European Union (EU) compared to the USA. As this post will show the likelihood that the EU’s fossil fuel consumption has peaked, back in 1979, is now very real. It will also compare the degree of net fossil fuel self-sufficiency between the EU and the USA as of 2007. The EU has to a much larger extent (presently approximately twice that of USA) allowed its energy mixture and fossil fuel consumption to be based upon imports. The EU energy independence is not a realistic choice or goal (unless living standards are swiftly and dramatically lowered), and there are reasons to believe that the EU members will continue to find it increasingly hard to harmonize their energy policies towards energy exporters which will add to the strains within the union. This is something Putin (Russia is presently EU’s biggest supplier of fossil fuels) seems to have been aware of while the EU occupied itself with defining goals for greenhouse gas emissions it sleepwalked into increased reliance on Russian fossil fuel imports. Former head of IEA rece..

Another week, another record. Hopefully by now you've gotten used to seeing record crude prices. As usual, we started to see a sell off after nearly reaching $145.85 a barrel last Thursday. This morning, crude dipped over six dollars a barrel before bouncing back over $141 per barrel this afternoon. But it's not just oil that's been on my mind. If your mind has been fixated on "America's Oil Crisis," (I still can't get over the fact that some people believe it's only a problem in the U.S.) perhaps it's time to take a look at natural gas. It's a good bet that whenever you see oil prices climb higher, natural gas is moving up right alongside it. I know that all we hear about nowadays is how oil prices are out of control, but you might be surprised that natural gas has actually gained more so far in 2008. Take a look for yourself: Think about that for a second. We're approaching Katrina-level natural gas prices without any significant supply disruptions. Can you think of the last time you heard someone say, "I'm not heating my home anymore because natural gas prices are out of control." I have a feeling we won't be seeing that kind of protest anytime soon. Unfortunately, we might run into problems as Canadian natural gas production gets into trouble. As you know, Canada is a key part of the North American natural gas market. Production in the Western Canada Sedimentary basin (where Canada gets an overwhelming amount of their natural gas) is in decline. The good news, however, i..

shreveporttimes.com: CEO: Haynesville Shale is fourth largest in the world . Quotes: The Haynesville Shale is likely to become America's largest natural gas field and perhaps the fourth largest in the world, Chesapeake Energy Chairman and CEO Aubrey McClendon disclosed Wednesday in a conference call with its newest partner, Plains Exploration and Production Co.

Bush, Harper, Fukada, Brown, Merkel, Sarkozy and Berlusconi. The leaders of the G7 (+Russia) will meet this week in Japan. Their collective failure to reduce demand for oil, natural gas and coal within their respective economies is one of the main reasons energy prices are spiraling upwards out of control. [break] High oil prices The leaders of the G7 have been howling about high oil prices. They have been to Jeddah to beg OPEC to produce more oil. They have tried to blame speculators for bidding the price up. They do seem to understand that prices are high owing to a growing imbalance between supply and demand at the price they would like to pay. But they have done nothing to try and solve this unfolding crisis apart from fiddle while Rome burns. The only part of this equation they can control is demand. It is therefore imperative that action is taken to curb demand for oil within the G7 - now! But no. Rather than show any form of leadership the favored course of action by all is to allow the market, via price, to ration oil supplies between countries and within countries - and then quite amazingly to complain about the high price their common policy has produced. The G7 policy of allowing the market and high oil prices to ration supplies is working. G7 oil consumption appears to have peaked at 1681 million tonnes in 2005. It is unlikely this figure will ever be surpassed (though it was exceeded in the 1970s and 1980s). It is therefore the conscious decision of the G7 leade..

The Guardian Internal World Bank study delivers blow to plant energy drive By Aditya Chakrabortty Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75% - far more than previously estimated - according to a confidential World Bank report obtained by the Guardian. The damning unpublished assessment is based on the most detailed analysis of the crisis so far, carried out by an internationally respected economist at global financial body. The figure emphatically contradicts the US government's claims that plant-derived fuels contribute less than 3% to food-price rises. It will add to pressure on governments in Washington and across Europe, which have turned to plant-derived fuels to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce their dependence on imported oil. Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush. "It would put the World Bank in a political hot-spot with the White House," said one yesterday. The news comes at a critical point in the world's negotiations on biofuels policy. Leaders of the G8 industrialised countries meet next week in Hokkaido, Japan, where they will discuss the food crisis and come under intense lobbying from campaigners calling for a moratorium on the use of plant-derived fuels. It will also put pressure on the British government, which is due to release its own report on the impact of biofuels, the Gallagher Report. The Guardian has previously reported that the ..

Falls Church News-Press By Tom Whipple Three months ago anyone talking about $200 oil was considered a fear monger, or worse, but things happen fast these days. In the intervening period, oil prices have risen by nearly $40 a barrel and show no signs of stopping. All of a sudden it has become fashionable to start talking about much higher prices and to start thinking about the implications of multi-hundred dollar oil. Among the many debates going on over oil is one holding that crude will never get much beyond $200 a barrel because at such an extreme price, demand for oil products will drop so much that prices will fall back to more affordable levels. Countering this argument are those who point out that nearly half the world's population can buy oil products subsidized by their governments or national oil companies, will never be subjected to the high world prices and will go merrily along increasing their consumption for a while longer. While demand for oil products in the U.S., Europe and other OECD countries is starting to slip, this drop in consumption is more than being made up in the subsidized societies of Russia, the Middle East, India and China. If oil prices move from $140 to $200 the impact is going to be felt more harshly than during the climb from $20 to $140 that has taken place in the last few years. To the surprise of many, oil consumption in the U.S. did not begin to drop noticeably until the price moved beyond $100 a barrel and even then it is only in the ..

This BERR report (small pdf) published in May 2008 provides 4 alternative price scenarios for oil, natural gas and coal. The high scenario is shown below. [break] BERR are inviting comments and suggestions. emissionsprojections@berr.gsi.gov.uk Upstreamonline is a good source of oil and natural gas prices. On 3rd July: Brent is trading at $144 per barrel Tapis is trading at $153 per barrel UK day ahead natural gas is trading at 62p / therm

It is oddly fitting that we touched $100 oil on 31 December and got halfway from $100 to $200 oil on 30 June - so we're on track to reach $200 oil by 31 December this year (in case you're wondering: +42% and again +42% from that level = +100% from the initial level). It is also fitting that on that same date, the International Energy Agency published one of its gloomiest ever analyses of the oil markets, asserting that oil prices are justified by fundamentals It said: “Like alchemists looking for a way to turn basic elements into gold, everyone wants a simplistic explanation for high prices,” bluntly adding: “Often it is a case of political expediency to find a scapegoat for higher prices rather than undertake serious analysis or perhaps confront difficult decisions .” [break] I have been told by a reliable source that the IEA has been forbidden by the US administration from updating their absurdly cornucopian oil supply and demand scenarios until the report that comes out late this year (after the election); that report, which will publish the result of a "bottom-up" analysis (ie a summary of all existing oil fields, their production and/or prospects) is expected to show that oil production is unlikely to reach the levels that so many have blithely assumed - notably on the basis of previous optimistic IEA reports. The IEA, which was deeply unhappy about the current lies to was supposed to present and support, has been leaking word of the expected con..

I frequently hear it suggested that we need a wartime mobilisation to address the challenges we face. The most recent being in the synopsis for Lester R. Brown’s new book, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization : The world faces many environmental trends of disruption and decline. The scale and complexity of issues facing our fast-forward world have no precedent. With "Plan A", business as usual, we have neglected these issues overly long. In "Plan B 3.0", Lester R. Brown warns that the only effective response now is a Second World War-type mobilisation like that in the United States after the attack on Pearl Harbor. What is a wartime mobilisation, what triggers one and what relevance does such thinking have to today’s challenges? [break] In Brown’s first Plan B book he described the wartime mobilisation thus: In his State of the Union address on January 6, 1942, one month after Pearl Harbor, President Roosevelt announced ambitious arms production goals. The United States, he said, was planning to produce 60,000 planes, 45,000 tanks, 20,000 anti-aircraft guns, and 6 million tons of merchant shipping. He added, "Let no man say it cannot be done." Achieving these goals was possible only by converting existing industries and using materials that previously went into manufacturing civilian goods. Nowhere was this shift more dramatic than in the automobile industry, which was at that time the largest concentration of industrial power in the world, producing 3-4 million..

By Anonymous The energy we consume cannot be stored and we guzzlers refuse to obviate our doomed. Nevertheless, there is no infinite supply of energy- least of all being fossil fuel. Even suns burn out, explode and are recycled to form more suns, more planets. Do humans really have preeminence over nature? Well, let us see. If we totally convert to nuclear power, there is only so much uranium in the ground. Sun power will only work during daylight. Other methods being explored are contingent upon a limited amount of materials being produced from the soil. The very best we can do is conserve and hope like hell perpetual, alternate energy sources will be invented or found or brought down to us from the Gods. There is no mandate coming out of Washington, no high court decision, no Manhattan-style Project to solve this one. President Jimmy Carter, in his infinite wisdom, warned us about our lavish, wasteful way with fuel and it cost him his day job. Well, conservation will only prolong the inevitable. We will run out! We are drinking all the wine (on a global level) and there is no way to grow more grapes. I personally believe no one wants to look realistically (some may say fatalistically) at our consumption habits and our inability to find perpetual energy sources. Here is a realistic thought. There may be none available! In our present cognitive and technological state we may lack the ability to develop a source for sustainable energy. Who among us have the foresight to deter..

Filed under: Oil Sands , Middle East Saudi Aramco's core area in Dhahran city The world's insatiable demand for petroleum is about to cause more drilling and pumping in Saudi Arabia , as the country is set to begin setting up shop on the Khurais oil field. A ten-billion dollar investment will be made which is expected to allow the nation to pump one and a half billion additional barrels of oil per day by the end of next year. The project, which is already expected to begin shipping over a million barrels of oil beginning next June, is a massive undertaking. Saudi Arabia has, to this point, resisted producing additional oil, as it believes there is no shortage at all. Instead, the country points to the low value of the U.S. dollar and unrealistic speculators are the major driving forces behind the record-high oil prices. Still, the country remains extremely important to major oil-consuming nations such as the United States as it currently produces eleven-percent of the world's daily supply of oil and is the only country left with relatively easy-to-tap oil reserves. [Source: AP via The Detroit News ]   Read  |  Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

The Herald Standard By James Pletcher Jr. America and the world will face dire consequences in the next several decades if they do not prepare for a predicted peak in global oil production. "We really have to start thinking about what the alternatives are, what we are going to do and start acting on it. Our future isn't written. It's all about anticipating the change and doing something about it,'' Dr. Robert Kaufmann, Ph.D. of Boston University and an expert on gasoline prices and world oil supply, said. Oil, he added, is the ideal fuel for transportation. "But, say right now, you have an alternative to motor gasoline. That means you will have to replace every car, gas station, retrain mechanics, all over the world. These are things that do not occur overnight.'' Kaufmann was the main speaker during a Foundation for American Communications (FACS) tele-seminar, "Pain at the Pump: What Comes Next in the Gas Price Crisis.'' Basing his observations on data available from the U.S. government, Kaufmann said oil is a finite resource laboring under increasing demand. "This is why foresight is really important. We have to get technologies in place,'' he said. Kaufmann explained there is a net energy supply, which is the difference between supply and demand. "If you plan early, the net reduction of energy supplies in the economy will be manageable. If you wait until production turns down, then the net energy is really squeezed and that will have incredibly disruptive affects. "We hav..

Chron.com We may not be doomed, but we also may not be ready for all of its effects By Steve Yetiv Americans are feeling serious pain at the gasoline pump, and scratching their heads as to why. Part of the answer may be that we are approaching peak oil sooner than many people would have guessed. Peak oil refers to a key turning point when global oil production peaks, signaling a future of slowly decreasing world oil production. No one can say when peak oil will arrive, but one fact at least suggests that it may come sooner rather than later: Until recently, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries barely tried to stem the rise of oil prices from $50 dollars per barrel in February 2007 to more than $130 per barrel today. In the past, OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia, have often increased oil production to try to prevent prices from rising high enough to trigger alternative energy exploration; a Western political backlash; and the ire of the gendarme of the Persian Gulf — the United States. In fact, when I visited OPEC headquarters in May 2003, OPEC researchers underscored how OPEC was keeping the price of the OPEC oil basket at around $22-28 per barrel (roughly $25-31 on the New York Mercantile Exchange). And, OPEC did succeed in doing so more than 80 percent of the days from June 2001 to June 2003. Recently, the Saudis announced that they will boost daily oil production by 200,000 barrels per day by the end of July, though most of this oil will probably not ..

news-record.com By Morgan Josey Glover High fuel costs in the Triad caused a discount airline to fail, school buses to drain county coffers and companies to switch to four-day work weeks. All this before the average price of unleaded gasoline hit $4 a gallon. So what would Guilford County residents experience if fuel hit $8 a gallon? Or $10? Picture more bicycles on Greensboro's Battleground Avenue than cars. A dearth — for once — of "Made in China" wares on store shelves. Weeds and "For Sale" signs in desolate subdivisions. The world's thirst for oil might soon outstrip its capacity to produce it — if it hasn't already — and the consequences could be devastating. A growing number of energy experts, investors and concerned citizens worry about the country's lack of preparation for "peak oil," the point at which the amount of petroleum that is economically feasible to extract and refine goes into decline. Peak oil does not mean running out of oil. It signifies the end of the cheap-fuel era. "I don't think there is the commitment to make the transition in time for there not to be maximum economic hardship," said Luddy Hayden, a Greensboro resident who worked in the oil industry for more than 30 years. "I'm afraid that we are going to hit a bump that people will look back upon as the most difficult economic time we've had." Peak oil uncertainty Americans depend heavily on petroleum to power their cars, grow their food and heat their homes. Price spikes i..