We’re already running out of oil we can easily find… And that's only part of the reason that Germany is starting to freak out. In a leaked report, think tank Bundeswehr Transformation Center says there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.” This could send oil prices skyrocketing — and a German nation into panic mode. AdvertisementCash in on $36,950 from the Nuclear Energy Renaissance in America — in Just 12 Months I've been handed some highly classified information... and it revolves around the changing energy landscape in the United States. As Obama hands out billions for nuclear reactor construction, there's one small energy company that's going to absol...
Regular readers know I'm a fan of diesel cars, having test-driven some terrific models at recent car shows, as well as renting them on past trips to Europe. For drivers who travel mainly highway miles, the fuel economy benefits of dieselization can approach those of hybrids at a much lower initial cost premium. However, at least in the US, the cost of combining the two technologies to achieve even greater fuel savings has been cost-prohibitive, while in Europe, where fuel prices are much higher, interest in hybrids languished until fairly recently. Now, two auto makers have announced they will take that step and launch European hybrid-diesel models next year, with impressive fuel economy and emissions results.Carmakers have known about the efficiency potential of diesel hybrids for a lo...
The time for discussing a looming water shortage has passed. It's no longer looming; it's here. The World Bank now reports 80 countries facing “water shortages that threaten the health of their citizens and economies.” From the American Southwest to the Middle East to China's Northeast... population growth, food needs, and drought are straining water resources to the max. And the solution to these problems are going to present myriad investment opportunities. I covered the Chinese angle a few weeks ago. Today we're going to peek under the water veil of the Middle East. AdvertisementThe overnight comeback of North American oil This $4-a-share driller is the front-runner in a forgotten oil field that’s all of a sudden the hottest energy territory in the Western Hemisphere...
In 1913, Lord Northcliffe, who owned the Daily Mail, offered £10,000 to the first men to fly the Atlantic from North America to Ireland or England in less than 72 hours. The prize was won by John Alcock and Arthur Brown, who flew non stop from Newfoundland to Ireland in June 1919 on a modified Vickers Vimy bomber. Later on, in 1927, Charles Lindbergh flew non stop from New York to Paris, collecting another prize for the result. Awarding prizes is a good way of stimulating technological development, with the added advantage that you pay for success and not for failures. Should we use the same strategy for renewable energy? Bill Gates has recently stated in an interview that The irony is that if you actually look at the amount of money that's been spent on feed-in tariffs and yo...
Last year, a group of about 200 people decided to sue Pacific Gas & Electric, claiming that newly-installed smart meters had jacked up their usage. Considering these new smart meters were being paraded around as the beginning of a major step in smart grid development, stories about faulty meters were not doing PG&E any favors... But the stubborn California utility maintained that there was nothing wrong with the meters, and that the lawsuit was without merit. Nonetheless, the California Public Utilities Commission brought in a third-party auditor to review the accuracy of the installed meters, and to see if these smart meters had actually caused higher energy bills — which more than 600 consumers claimed. The results of that audit came in last week. AdvertisementThe Next GE Thanks to a...
Welcome to Energy and Capital's weekend edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Energy and Capital and sister publications. How far are we willing to go for energy? It's a question I pose to my readers far too often these days. Perhaps the question isn't even fair to begin with... After all, every day it seems that companies are drilling further and deeper than ever before. A few years ago, that question drove Russia to literally plant a flag on the Arctic seabed, proclaiming to the water, “All of your oil and gas resources belong to us.” Anyone else remember that ridiculous publicity stunt? Countries have become more protective than ever of their precious hydrocarbon deposits — a lesson that the big oil is learning with every up-tick...
The East African Rift is a geological zone where continental plates in Eastern Africa have developed a tectonic plate boundary. This is a part of the larger Great Rift Valley, where the African Plate is in the process of dividing into two new tectonic plates called the Somali Plate and the Nubian Plate. As you can tell by the map above, it runs almost the entire length of Africa. What you don't see on the map is that the East African Rift is suspected to be one of the last great oil and natural gas deposits on earth. According to Time: Seismic tests over the past 50 years have shown that countries up the coast of East Africa have natural gas in abundance. Early data compiled by industry consultants also suggest the presence of massive offshore oil deposits. There is now a land grab goi...
Yesterday's fire on Mariner Energy's Vermilion 380 production platform in the Gulf of Mexico thankfully resulted in neither loss of life nor another big oil spill. However, the timing of this event seems likely to complicate the debate over the drilling moratorium that has been in place since the Deepwater Horizon accident, and that the government had been showing signs of relaxing or ending early. Based on the reactions so far, this latest accident also provides a Rorschach test on attitudes concerning offshore oil. Those convinced that the risks of offshore drilling outweigh its benefits are citing it as further evidence, while supporters of drilling are likelier to see it as proof that accidents offshore needn't be catastrophic. In reality, the two situations were so different that...
Some serious questions are starting to be asked as the nation prepares to build its first nuclear plant in decades. The answer to these questions, as you'll soon learn, will be worth a fortune to on-point investors. It's like this... Of the 104 nuclear reactors in the United States, no two are the same. In fact a recent AP report said “experts blame for causing construction and regulatory delays and leading to bigger bills for power customers.” And now that a nuclear rebirth is upon us, industry executives want to make sure they're not repeating past mistakes. Baking nuclear cookies The key, according to nuclear thought leaders, is reactor pre-approval. The idea is to have the government preapprove several reactor designs, and then let companies choose from the list. Knowing wh...
By now you may have seen some prototypes of the new-car fuel economy stickers on which the EPA is seeking public comment. The versions that prominently display letter grades for overall fuel economy performance are certainly eye-catching, rising above the potentially confusing mix of numbers and graphics in the body of the sticker. Yet although the current stickers are clearly inadequate to illuminate the choices and consequences associated with buying vehicles powered by an increasingly diverse array of fuels, devising a similarly simple summary page may be beyond the skills of even the cleverest engineers and graphic designers. And in the hyper-connected world in which we now live, the necessity of presenting all this information in one place deserves at least as much thought as the prop...
While the Middle East may have a reputation for instability and occasional violence, there's no denying the vast riches it has to offer patient investors. Just months after the announcement of $1 trillion worth of minerals in Afghanistan comes word of oil discoveries in Israel... AdvertisementHow To Make Money From Every Car Produced Despite what you may read in the papers, the global auto industry is thriving… In fact auto production world-wide is increasing 6% this year. And after a four-year study, we uncovered how you could get paid from every single one made — no matter what happens to an automaker’s share price. Click here to find out how... Israel may finally be able to tell its Middle Eastern neighbors where they can stick their oil — something the United States h...
The farmers' market was absolutely packed this past Saturday. Of course, it was my own fault for getting up so late... If you're not there by 7:00 a.m., you have to maneuver through the flocks of chatty stay-at-home moms and hungover hipsters that always seem to congregate around the Thai food stand that displays deep-fried spring rolls like delicate glass ornaments. But despite the larger crowds that morning, there was still plenty of food to go around at the stand where I pick up my weekly share of fruits and vegetables. You see, I belong to a local CSA (Community Supported Agriculture). I pay a few hundred dollars at the beginning of the year, then throughout the summer and fall, I get a “share” of whatever my farmer grows. This year, the Japanese eggplant, cantaloupe, and...
Since I've been taking potshots at German energy policy recently, I was pleased to see that it appears the country's government is nearing a reasonable compromise concerning nuclear power, which accounts for 22% of the electricity generated in Germany. The Financial Times reported yesterday that the CDU/FDP coalition is likely to propose extending the life of the country's reactors by 12-15 years, in order to give renewable energy sources more time to ramp up. Yet while the extension makes enormous sense from the perspective of emissions and energy security, I'm puzzled by the plan's implicit assumption that nuclear power is valuable only as a bridge to more renewable energy, rather than as a key part of any future, low-emission energy mix.In 2007 Germany's 17 reactors generated 140 billio...
Energy is — and always will be — a profitable long-term play. You should know that by now. If you don't believe it, you're better off burning your cash for warmth. Last week, I shed some light on the Mexican oil crisis. At first glance, I'll admit my sour view of Mexico's oil production is more doom and gloom, but I'm hard pressed to find a reason why they won't self-destruct from Pemex's production collapsing. But does that grim outlook mean we're should throw in the towel? Absolutely not... Several weeks ago, I asked a quick, simple question: Right now, which energy plays are you most comfortable holding for the long run? The answers that flooded my e-mail inbox shocked me. The vast majority of responses were one of the supermajor oil companies: ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutc...
Welcome to the Energy and Capital Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Energy and Capital and sister publication articles. You know these guys, right? That's Buffett, Icahn, and Paulson — three of the most legendary investors in the game. But do you know what they all have in common besides being multi-billionaires? They each added to energy positions in the last quarter. AdvertisementJr. Mining Outfit Unlocks $550 Billion Deposit ... And surges 207%! Trading for $1.42, this tiny junior recently unlocked a metals deposit in Minnesota that's worth more than half a trillion dollars! As official mining operations begin, investors loading up right now could easily triple their money over the coming months... Click here to find out why...
I recently ran across a story indicating that regulators in Arizona are considering implementing a feed-in tariff (FIT) for solar power in that state. This is somewhat ironic, coming as it does amidst a wave of hotly-debated reductions in European solar FITs, in response to the burden they've imposed on electricity customers and the unintended consequences they've created. With Germany, Spain, and now apparently France all slashing their FITs, it's worth taking a look at how these policies differ from the US federal and typical state incentives for solar power, and why they might not be the best choice for promoting solar power here, particularly in places with solar resources as inherently attractive as Arizona's.As I've noted before, an FIT is effectively a tax, although imposed by utili...
Last week the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy released its Annual Energy Review for 2009. Although it doesn't offer predictions concerning the energy transition that was the subject of last Wednesday's posting, it does include a wealth of charts and graphs visualizing the remarkable energy shifts that have already occurred in the last several decades. Understanding these could help calibrate our expectations concerning the pace of the hoped-for clean energy revolution, while shedding light on characteristics that could move some technologies into the market faster than others. For energy the past isn't necessarily prologue, but it's certainly relevant.Start with the US primary energy overview for the last 60 years, which shows the steady growth of our energy consum...
This is a presentation by Dr. David Korowicz from Feasta, given at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009. It can be downloaded here: Things fall apart: Some thoughts on complexity, supply chains, infrastructure & collapse dynamics, PDF 23 slides, 1.3 MB, text of spoken presentation. It was previously posted on The Oil Drum in August 2009. Slide 2: Poem This poem by W.B. Yeats inspired my talk's title. Slide 3: A 16,000 thousand year switch Suppose I were to take your new born infant, and by some magic transport her back through 16,000 years to a cave in what is now Lascaux in south-western France. Let's swap your baby with a baby born to a Neolithic mother. There is no reason to believe that in time both children would not turn out to be well-adjusted, unremarkabl...
The standard knock on carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is that it hasn't been tested and proven on an industrial scale. That's really only true in the narrow sense in which you start with coal, produce electricity, and then collect and bury the CO2 that comes out the stack--which I imagine is what CCS evokes for most people who have even heard of the technology. Some years back, the US government set out to close that gap by building a large-scale test facility to demonstrate the coal-to-CCS cycle, with help from a consortium of industry partners. The program was called FutureGen. It died in 2008 after reported cost overruns but was revived in a different format last year. Now the reoriented effort has spawned a new project at a different location--though still in Illinois--to replac...
I'm as reluctant to insert myself into the debate over what happened to all the oil that leaked from BP's Macondo well between April 22 and July 15--when the second cap stopped the flow--as I was concerning the earlier controversy regarding flow-rate estimates. At the same time, I find the coverage of this story lacking in crucial details that could help us to understand how much of the oil evaporated into the warm air of the Gulf or degraded naturally, how much was collected, and how much potentially remains in the sea. The assessment issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on August 4, 2010 has been disputed by some scientists, and reports of lingering oil plumes add to the public's apprehension that the pieces don't quite add up. But although I don't have ne...
The August 2010 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.24 MB, 33 pp). Figure 1 - Non-OPEC crude oil production January 2002 to May 2010, Datasource: EIA. The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Below the fold is an executive summary, subscription form to receive the Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail, and latest graphics. For much more detail and a country by country profile, download the .pdf. Subscribe to receive Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail Latest Developments: 1) Conventional crude production - Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 103,000 b/d from April...
The August 13 issue of Science, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), devotes a special section to "Scaling Up Alternative Energy". Most of the section, including some nifty comparative infographics, can be accessed free of charge until August 27, requiring only a free site registration. I encourage you to read it while it's available. The articles cover topics such as the prospects for cellulosic ethanol and the challenges of siting renewable energy projects. Another entitled, "Do We Have the Energy for the Next Transition?" particularly caught by attention. I've been focused on this issue from the inception of this blog in 2004 and long before that. This is an issue that's not about to go away or be solved overnight, no matter how much wishfulness...
In this post I present an analysis of how OPEC oil supplies have responded to changes in crude oil prices during the last 10 years. My objective was to estimate OPEC's probable marketable crude oil capacities as of May 2010, based on responses of OPEC oil supplies to price changes. This approach suggests that as of May 2010, OPEC’s marketable spare crude oil capacity was approximately 2 Mb/d and that a majority of this spare capacity is most likely in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE. The stacked columns show each OPEC member’s crude oil supplies and OPEC’s supplies of lease condensates and NGLs between January 2001 and May 2010. The average monthly oil price is also plotted using amounts on the left hand y-axis. I also briefly present a recent history of OECD and Non O...
Last month's announcement that China was cutting its export quota for rare earth elements by 72% for the second half of 2010 didn't seem to attract wide attention, but now that the other half of its strategy has been revealed, that might change. Today's Wall St. Journal reported overtures from Chinese officials to firms interested in accessing these materials, which are critical for the production of some components of renewable energy technology and advanced vehicles. The apparent deal: invest in rare earth processing in China to obtain access, with the output from new facilities incorporated into products for the rapidly-growing internal market or export. Not only would this practice compound the difficulties faced by US and other foreign renewable energy firms seeking to market their pr...
Filed under: Etc., Oil Sands, Green DailyOil sand samples obtained from the Yousha Mountain in the Qaidam basin located in the northwestern region of China have been sampled, tested and deemed "feasible" for further development and exploration. As the China Petroleum Daily reports, samples contain a high percentage of clean oil that should make the process of extraction and refinement a relatively low-cost operation. The report states that the Qaidam oils sands reserve could contain enough usable crude to allow for the daily extraction of 700 metric tons. However, the report did not list any detailed info regarding the total crude reserves contained within the region. Once extraction begins, the Qaidam basin will become the country's first oil sand project. China intends to invest additi...
I recently ran across a mention in the New York Times of a new study suggesting a variety of energy and climate measures the administration could undertake on their own, without requiring new legislation passed by Congress. I've been thinking about this during some long stretches of driving this week. At first glance, the group's ideas merit consideration, and they might indeed be sufficient to meet the near-term emissions reduction goals the US endorsed at last year's Copenhagen climate conference. However, as tempting as such an approach might be in a year of legislative gridlock on energy, its pitfalls probably outweigh its benefits.I haven't had time to scrutinize the report of the Presidential Climate Action Project item by item, since I'm on vacation. It caught my eye mainly because...
The discussion about our energy supply is full of extremely optimistic expectations. There are many people who believe that full replacement of fossil with renewable energy sources in an extremely short time span is possible. Such ideas have been publicly voiced in Al Gore’s call for 100% renewable energy in the United States within 10 years, and Jacobson & Delucchi’s plan to power 100 percent of the planet with renewable by 2030 published in Scientific American. Their optimism stems from ignoring the inherent gradual nature of energy transitions and the quality differences between energy sources. Both issues are described in Vaclav Smil’s new book, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects. Vaclav Smil, a Professor at the University of Manitoba, has been w...
Driving across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin, it's impossible not to be struck by the dominance of corn cultivation in this part of the Midwest. Those "amber waves of grain" in the song look more like amber waves of corn tassels, here. My family makes this drive every few years, and my unscientific impression is that we see more and larger corn fields every time. Given my focus on energy, I couldn't resist spending a few minutes using the hotel Wi-Fi to check on my hunch that most of this has been driven by the explosion of ethanol production in the last decade--up an average of 22% per year since 2000.Based on data from the USDA, corn production has grown substantially in the last decade, though by a much smaller annual percentage than ethanol output, and with the peaks and valley...
A few days after my post on The Chinese Coal Monster was published I received an email from Jean Laherrere with the following charts and some comments: One of the puzzles addressed in the original post was the fact that BP data showed Chinese production and consumption to be broadly in balance making it difficult to explain reports of surging coal imports. Jean's main point is that EIA data provides a different picture to that provided by BP and that the BP data are likely wrong. It is very important to know that China is importing much more than in the past. In the above graph, with EIA data, it is a cliff, while BP data show a plateau. JL The EIA and China year book figures show China plunging from net exporter (positive numbers) to net importer (negative numbers) of coal. Jean points t...
This post was published in June 2009 under the name The Fifth Problem: Peak Capital. The five main elements of the world model developed in "The Limits to Growth" study according to Magne Myrtveit . The world's global positioning system (GPS) is in trouble. The US government accountability office (GAO) has published a worrysome report on the situation. The GPS satellites are wearing down and, if no new investments are made, the accuracy of the positioning system will be reduced. Eventually, the whole system may cease functioning. What's happening here? The GPS system is a pinnacle of modern technology, a demonstration that the thing we call "progress" exists. If you have a car navigator, the idea of going back to clumsy printed maps just seems impossible. And that is just...
One of my basic assumptions about our energy future is that most automobiles will eventually be electrified. That's based on extensive scenario work done with my former colleagues at Texaco, Inc. in the late 1990s. Nothing I've seen since then has changed my view on that. However, vehicle electrification is not necessarily synonymous with "electric vehicle" (EV) in its common usage to connote a car powered only by electricity stored in batteries. It's a much broader category, covering all three electrification options now slated to be available to consumers by year-end: hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and "pure" EVs. It also encompasses fuel cell vehicles, though these have yet to move beyond the test-market stage. The characteristics of the three current varieties of electrified vehicles differ...
In Europe, natural gas has great importance. Many people believe (some countries even instituted policies) that it will be the fuel that will become the bridge to an energy future with less reliance on coal and nuclear power. Furthermore, in 2009, about 26% of the primary energy consumption of the 27 members of the European Union came from natural gas, making it a very important fuel today. In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply. Based on my analysis, there may be a shortfall in supply very soon, especially if sufficient new sources of supply are not found, or if natural gas is used as a substitute for other energy sources. More specifically, the findings from my analysis a...
When legislation is introduced in the US Congress, most of the discussion typically concerns its specific provisions. Sometimes, as in the case of the "public option" absent from the final healthcare bill, notable omissions vie for attention. However, in the case of this year's greatly-diminished energy bill released this week by Senator Reid (D-NV), most of the controversy seems to be focused on its long list of missing elements, including but not limited to cap & trade, a national renewable energy standard for electricity, and extensions for various expiring renewable energy incentives. That's not to say that what's left doesn't deserve careful scrutiny, particularly provisions affecting offshore oil and gas drilling. But compared to the energy bill that might have been, this draft looks...
I've been going though BP's second-quarter earnings press release and results to get a better sense of the impact of the Gulf Coast oil spill on the company's finances. It's a measure of the scale of a "Supermajor" like BP and the robustness of its underlying cash flows that it could continue to invest more than $6 billion (B) in capital projects and acquisitions in the quarter and even pay down a bit of debt, while recording a charge of $32.2 B against earnings related to the Deepwater Horizon disaster and ensuing oil leak. To put that figure in perspective, it's more than the market capitalization of Exelon Corporation, the largest owner and operator of nuclear power plants in the US. Yet among all of the remarkable and morbidly-fascinating numbers presented here, the one that stood out...
How can you not love T. Boone Pickens? Here's someone who made his fortune in oil, and now he's advising us to switch major parts of the US economy to wind and natural gas. And unlike some of the other concepts for taking a big bite out of our oil consumption, his current idea actually stands a chance of making a significant difference on a timescale of years, rather than decades. At the same time, however, Mr. Pickens has sometimes been a tad bit less than accurate with the numbers he uses to make his points. Remember those ads about the $700 billion per year we were sending overseas to buy oil? Even at its absolute peak in July 2008, reality was more like $500 billion, and the total for 2008 ended up around $385 billion, based on net imports and the average refiner acquisition cost for t...
The July 2010 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.24 MB, 33 pp). Figure 1 - North America Oil Consumption January 2002 to May 2010, Datasource: JODI. The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Below the fold is an executive summary, subscription form to receive the Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail, and latest graphics. For much more detail and a country by country profile, download the .pdf. Subscribe to receive Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail Latest Developments: 1) Conventional crude production - Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 100,000 b/d from March t...
If the present global temperature trend continues for the remainder of the year, we're bound to hear a growing chorus of reports about 2010 being the warmest year since records have been kept. The first six months of 2010 already appear to have been the warmest first half on record. Or was it? When you examine the numerical result from the National Climatic Data Center upon which this determination rests, it turns out that January-June of this year apparently topped the previous six-month record set in 1998 by just 0.03°F. Not only is that difference quite small, but there's a good chance it doesn't exist at all and is merely the result of average temperature data being tallied to more decimal places than the accuracy of the instruments recording them warrants. So when someone tell...
This is a guest post on my request from DoDo, contributing editor at European Tribune, who works in the railway sector. In technical English (and many other languages), electricity generation is commonly divided into two basic load regimes: base load and peak load. However, other languages recognise three basic regimes (for example German: Grundlast - Mittellast - Spitzenlast), and this division also appears in English in the usage of some international bodies (for example ENS). In this article, I want to demonstrate why the 3-part view makes more sense, use it to show the place of exports and renewables in the power mix, and say a few words about the prospects of de-carbonising electricity generation. Base, intermediate & peak load In the common view of technical English, in the co...
For the first time in many years I find myself in general agreement with one of the major ethanol trade associations on a key matter of energy policy. Last week Growth Energy, which represents a significant portion of the US ethanol and biofuels industry, announced its support for a phase-out of the federal Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit, or "blender's credit", in preference to using these funds to provide incentives for constructing the infrastructure needed to offer ethanol at every gas station, and to promote vehicles that can safely burn higher-percentage ethanol blends. This looks like a prudent shift for several reasons, and I hope that the Congress is paying close attention.No, I haven't suddenly abandoned my aversion to ethanol subsidies that have dragged on for more than thr...
This week Secretary of Interior Salazar reissued the administration's deepwater drilling moratorium, with a few new twists and a notional six month limit. This happened in spite of loud protests from the states most affected by the spill, some of their representatives in Washington, and even some skepticism from the heads of the President's own drilling commission. The old ban is still in court, and the new one probably will be soon, but this is really all moot, because whether the Salazar moratorium is technically in force or not, the legal battle over it has created a moratorium limbo that few companies would be willing to test, given the costs involved. One irony of all this is that in addition to the obvious indirect winners in OPEC, there's at least one direct winner in this hemispher...
The peak oil movement — an unlikely alliance of geologists, physicists, oil industry consultants and environmental activists — seems to be gaining momentum and winning new converts. For the first time, some say, peaksters have begun to grab the attention of Washington and Wall Street.
The US Energy Secretary has now asked his advisory body, the National Petroleum Council, to investigate if oil supplies could keep pace with (the rising global) demand. Further, the US government accountability office, a non-partisan congressional watchdog, is due to release a study on peak oil this November. Interestingly, a congressional peak oil caucus has also been formed in the meantime, too.
» Source: MENAFM
Naturally with the theory of peak oil coming increasingly under discussion, the focus is bound to shift on Ghawar, the world's super giant well — accounting for more than six percent of the global oil needs ...
Sweden is planning to be oil free by 2020, and a multi-party Senate Committee has cited it as a good example. Their report raises recommendations reducing greenhouse gas emissions and car use, and investing in public transport, gas and biofuels.
But new figures show that Australians are relying on their cars more than ever. Annie Guest has this report.
» Source: The World Today
ANNIE GUEST: It's no secret Australians love their cars, but there's evidence that affection is stronger than ever.
Maryann Wood from the Bureau of Statistics says we're clocking up record kilometres.
MARYANN WOOD: In the year ending 31st of October 2005, the report actually shows that Australian vehicles travelled just over 206 billion kilometres.
ANNIE GUEST: And where does that sit with previous statistics?
MARYANN WOOD: This is actually a record figure.
ANNIE GUEST: Whether 2006's higher petrol prices have pushed more Australians ...
One of the hazards involved in energy analysis is placing too much emphasis on raw data, like the kind one finds in the U.S. Energy Information Agency’s weekly and monthly reports. While rawness may be a desirable attribute in certain meats and vegetables, it is less desirable in statistical information that is susceptible to errors requiring a correction at some later point. It is even more exasperating when the changes are significant enough to warrant junking a hypothesis that explained the earlier results well but doesn’t fit at all with the newly redrawn picture.
The latest example of this recurring pattern occurred this week when EIA released a compilation of supply and consumption data from January through June this year. In that statistical summary, EIA reported that demand for gasoline inched up by 0.6 percent from the year-earlier period. But in the weekly reports, EIA’s estimates of increased demand had been ...
Peak Oil is the theory, on the verge of becoming conventional wisdom, that the world's petroleum supply is topping out and will not be able to meet global demand soaring along with the economies of China and India. But a successful test in a mammoth field deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico, announced on Sept. 5 by Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), and Norway's Statoil (STO), should help put that scary scenario on hold for decades.
One huge oil reserve, even if it could rival the 1968 discovery of Prudhoe Bay and increase U.S. reserves by up to 50%, will not turn around the world's tight energy markets, of course. It won't even bring the U.S. close to energy independence when oil and gas get into full-fledged production four or five years from now.
» Source: BusinessWeek
But the capability to find and ...
The need for such a protocol is becoming increasingly plain. Petroleum is a non-renewable, polluting, and depleting resource on which the world has become dangerously dependent. This in itself should be cause for nations to find ways to reduce their consumption and thus their dependency.
However, there is also the problem of uncertain future supply. Long before the last drop of petroleum has been recovered from any given reservoir the possible rate of extraction tends to peak and then fall off for purely physical, geological reasons. Today, most oil-producing countries have already reached and passed their national production peaks and are in steady decline. There is universal agreement that the world as a whole will reach its peak rate of production at some point in the next few decades-but there is controversy as to when, exactly, the peak will come. While some analysts forecast the maximum flow rate as occurring later ...
In his 2006 State of the Union address, President George W. Bush declared that the U.S. is a nation “addicted to oil” and vowed to take steps to reduce Middle Eastern imports by 75 percent by 2025.
After a summer of $3-plus gasoline, most of us would see this as a good idea. But it may be too late. According to a growing cadre of petroleum geologists, the days of cheap oil are over. At issue is a concept called Hubbert's Peak, named for former oil-company geologist M. King Hubbert.
In 1956, Hubbert made a bold prediction. Oil production in the Lower 48 states, he said, would peak in the early 1970s and decline forever after. He proved, if anything, slightly too optimistic: the actual peak occurred in 1970.
» Source: SignOnSanDiego.com
More recently, Kenneth Deffeyes, a retired geophysics ...
You can tune out all the scare talk about Peak Oil for a while—probably a long while. Peak Oil is the theory, on the verge of becoming conventional wisdom, that the world's petroleum supply is topping out and will not be able to meet global demand soaring along with the economies of China and India. But a successful test in a mammoth field deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico, announced on Sept. 5 by Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), and Norway's Statoil (STO), should help put that scary scenario on hold for decades.
One huge oil reserve, even if it could rival the 1968 discovery of Prudhoe Bay and increase U.S. reserves by up to 50%, will not turn around the world's tight energy markets, of course. It won't even bring the U.S. close to energy independence when oil and gas get into full-fledged production four or five years from now.
But ...
Norway's oil output is peaking at around 3 million barrels per day and will stay at this level for the next four to five years before the country switches focus to natural gas production, a senior government official said today.
"We are sort of on the peak of oil production (and) we will stay here for four or five years and then switch to gas," Reuters quoted Anders Bjarne Moe, director general of the Oil & Energy Ministry, as saying at an oil and offshore conference.
The looming shift to more gas as recoverable oil supplies on the Norwegian continental shelf dwindle will curb the flow of cash into the country's oil fund, which manages assets worth nearly $250 billion or roughly Norway's annual gross domestic product.
» Source: Upstreamonline
Moe said Norway enjoyed the status of a safe energy supplier, noting the UK's strong ...
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, hopes dialogue and conciliatory policies will blunt tensions caused by its growing energy needs, a Foreign Ministry official said on Wednesday.
Liu Jianchao, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's chief spokesman, said China's growing appetite for natural resources would not put it in conflict with other countries, and that it was actively pursuing alternatives to imported oil.
"At the moment we are trying to rely on ourselves for energy supply and at the same time trying to find clean, alternative energy resources," Liu said at the Reuters China Century Summit.
» Source: Reuters
China gets more than 40 percent of its oil from abroad and most of that oil arrives by sea.
But Liu said that while China was concerned about the guaranteed supply of crude, its needs would not put it in conflict with other countries.
"We are ready to work with the United States, with the European ...
The logistic curve, and its derivative the hubbert's curve, has been widely used to model population growth. And it has been applied to model oil production by M. King Hubbert. The model comes from the following differential equation:
dQ/dt=kQ(1-Q/URR)
where Q(t) is a function of time (measured in years) and it is defined as the cumulative production of a region until the end of year t. The parameter URR is the "Ultimately Recoverable Resources" or the maximum cumulative production that can be reached. K is the Malthusian parameter or the maximum cumulative production growth.
» Source: GraphOilogy
The value dQ/dt for a specific year's, can be approximated by
(Q(s)-Q(s-1))/(s-(s-1))= Q(s)-Q(s-1)
which is the production of year's, so let us define P(t)=Q(t)-Q(t-1). Let us assume that we have a region where the oil production follows strictly the logistic model, and ...
