Peak Oil Economy

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Oil Investments Outstrip Production Growth

Global energy companies boosted their investments in the upstream business by 31 pct in 2005, but only to achieve a marginal growth in oil and gas production and reserves. Global spending on exploration and production grew by 66 bln usd to 277 bln usd in 2005 as industry giants like Exxon Mobil Corp, BP PLC and Royal Dutch Shell PLC stepped up their hunt for more resources to meet rapidly growing demand, according to a study published today by US energy research firm John S. Herold Inc and corporate advisor Harrison Lovegrove & Co Ltd. » Source: Life Style Extra Production, however, inched up by just 1 pct, while reserves went up by 2 pct. In the US, output even fell 6 pct. Reserve replacement rate continued its decline, reaching 143 pct of production in 2005. Cost inflation ...

Costs of Peak Oil Threat

The world needs to spend $1tn a year in alternative fuels, starting 20 years before the peak in conventional oil production, in order to mitigate fuel shortages, a US Energy Department study showed. Production peaks in Texas, the UK and Norway were examined as part of two studies for the department that advised on "crash course" efforts to cope with an eventual shortage of gasoline and other liquid fuels. The study, led by Robert Hirsch, didn’t predict when world production will peak, though Hirsch told reporters his guess is "within the next five to 10 years." » Source: Gulf Times "Conventional oil will peak at some point," Hirsch said at the Oil and Money Conference in London. To lessen the impact, "we have to start a long time before the peak or we’ll have severe liquid fuels shortages worldwide." Conventional oil production peaked ...

Global Economic Growth at Peak says IMF

Global economic growth is at risk of peaking because of high oil prices and rising protectionist sentiment, warned Rodrigo de Rato, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, on Tuesday. “The global growth cycle may be close to its peak,” Mr de Rato said in his opening statement at the joint IMF and World Bank plenary session in Singapore. “The best hope for continued high growth lies in further increases to international trade. If this does not happen, the outlook is less encouraging.” » Source: Financial Times Mr de Rato also warned of a continued risk that current account imbalances will unwind in a disorderly way. “There is a growing risk that protectionist sentiment will overwhelm good sense. If it does, all of the other risks loom larger.” The IMF chief urged developed and emerging countries to renew their commitment to multilateralism and resume the ...

Future Price and Availability of Oil

In assessing future demand for transport, the Department uses assumptions of future oil prices which are established, and periodically updated, by the DTI. In the 2003 Future of Aviation White Paper, the Department's assumption was that aviation fuel prices would remain at $25 dollars per barrel in real terms (2000 prices) until 2030.[205] In the 2004 Future of Transport White Paper, the Department referred to the DTI's May 2004 projections of the price of crude oil standing at $23 a barrel (2003 prices) in 2010, and rising to almost $28 a barrel by 2020. » Source: UK House of Commons Since those White Papers were published, the price of oil has risen markedly; as of 11 July 2006 a barrel of brent crude stood at $74.16. In our first session, Transport 2000 discussed their concerns about the ...

Preparations - Money and Labour

Almost everything in our modern economy is either made from oil or requires oil for its functioning or its transportation. As the price of oil begins to skyrocket, therefore, so will the price of everything else. The same happened on a smaller scale during the temporary oil crisis of the 1970s and '80s. The hardest hit will be those with debts: car payments, house mortgages, credit cards, student loans. But everyone will find that a dollar just doesn't "stretch." High prices will be combined with low wages. Even now, the news media are always claiming that the unemployment rate is low, but they fail to mention that so many "employed" people are working at low-paying jobs. It is not easy to get together the required food, clothing, and shelter when one is being paid minimum wage. » Source: countercurrents.org At first, money ...

American Oil Detox

Across the country, politicians and ordinary citizens want to lower taxes on gasoline to ease pain at the pump. This idea is tempting, but it is precisely wrong: There is no better time to raise the national gas tax of 18.4 cents per gallon than now, if done correctly. I have a plan. Each day, the world uses about 84 million barrels of oil. The United States uses one-fourth of that, yet has one-twentieth of the world's population. Using oil worsens global warming, supports oil-rich autocrats, funds terrorism and makes America more inclined to be stuck in the Persian Gulf. In fact, our oil addiction is costlier than most people know. According to the International Center for Technology Assessment, the real price of gasoline is US$5.60 to US$15.14 per gallon, when taking into account environmental, health, social and defense costs associated with protecting and using oil. » Source: ...

Capacity Limits Oil Price Fall

The world should get used to oil prices above $US60 a barrel for at least the next two years due to capacity shortages, said Claude Mandil, the executive director of the International Energy Agency. Speaking from Paris, Mr Mandil told ABC's Inside Business that increased upstream supplies were not expected until at least 2008 and refining capacity would probably not increase until 2010 or 2011. "I expect at this time, barring, of course, any unexpected event, we could again see prices which are at a more comfortable level," he said. » Source: The Sydney Morning Herald Mr Mandil declined to specify his idea of a "comfortable level" but indicated the $US40 to $US50 a barrel range could be appropriate. A statement released by the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors at the weekend encouraged investment in oil exploration, production, transportation and refinery capacity, noting that "tight and volatile energy ...

Volatile Oil Prices

Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram called on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to play a more proactive role in regards to the oil market. Chidambaram, who is leading the Indian delegation (comprising of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Sri Lanka) to the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Committee, was addressing the committee on the global economy. In his statement to the committee, Chidambaram noted that while the global economic climate was healthy, the global economy faced risk from inflationary pressures, high and volatile oil prices and global trade imbalances. He noted that oil prices were a major concern, especially for developing nations. » Source: Arab News Chidambaram told the committee that while rising oil prices had initially pushed up headline inflation, spare capacity and an increase in productivity and stronger corporate balance sheets had helped the global economy sustain inflationary pressures. Major central banks, he ...

Algeria Oil Price Increase

ALGERIA - Oil prices are expected to stay above $50 a barrel in coming months, but producers are watching the U.S. economy closely as the possibility of a recession there cannot be ruled out, Algeria's energy minister said on Sunday. Asked by reporters for his price outlook for coming months, Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil replied: "I think prices will still remain above $50. The indications on the futures market are above $50 for the coming years." But he added: "Now everything depends on world economic growth. If there really is a recession in the U.S., at that moment demand could be affected fairly rapidly. We would find a lot of supply on the market and a lot of crude in competition." » Source: Reuters "We cannot exclude this possibility. We count a lot on the wisdom of the ...

African Oil Economy Growth

SUB-Saharan Africa’s economy would probably expand 6,3% next year, the fastest pace in more than three decades, boosted by higher output from oil-exporting countries such as Angola, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says in its World Economic Outlook released yesterday. Growth in the region was forecast to reach 5,2% this year, the third consecutive year it would exceed 5%, the Washington-based lender said in its semi-annual report released in Singapore. Next year’s growth rate would be the highest since 1971. Growth in SA would moderate as higher oil prices and rising interest rates curbed spending. » Source: Business Day Economic growth would probably slow to 4% from 4,2% this year, the IMF report said. SA’s $239bn economy expanded at a 21-year high of 4,9% last year. Rising oil prices have boosted investment in countries such as Angola, sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer. Other African ...