Peak Oil News

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall and others in Congress have positioned themselves at the center of an uncomfortable idea: Eventually the planet will run out of fossil fuels.
Udall is pushing for open discussion of peak oil, the concept that world-oil production will someday reach an all-time high. After that, oil production will decline because there’s only so much of it in the ground.

Oil production has already peaked in the United States at more than 3.5 billion barrels per year in 1970, just as a geophysicist predicted in the 1950s. Last year’s domestic production was about 1.8 billion barrels.

Some energy experts say a permanent fuel crunch could be a disaster for the global economy because this decline in production would most likely happen at the same time that demand reaches an all-time high.

» Source: New Mexican

Government reports have suggested that widespread social and economic disruption, including gasoline shortages, are possible.

“I agree that this is one of the biggest challenges that we face,” said Udall, a Democrat who represents Northern New Mexico. “I believe it’s going to be a hard road, and we should tell the truth to the American people about the difficult road we will be on.”

The concept of peak oil is somewhat controversial. Critics say the market will force oil companies and governments to find and produce more crude oil. Others say it’s feasible to power the country on electric cars and biofuels, even though that’s been dismissed by some energy experts as having no real impact in the near future.

U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., said he has not studied the issue enough to join the peak-oil crowd, but noted he’s pushing alternatives anyway.

If the United States never again imported another barrel of foreign oil from places like the Middle East, Domenici would be satisfied. “If in 10 years we’re out of it, I would say that would be the most fantastic accomplishment that I could ever make,” the Albuquerque Republican said recently. “And I would be thrilled to death if we didn’t have to buy anymore oil overseas, period.”

But Domenici admits that could be impossible. “I don’t think we can do it,” he said. “… I think most people think there’s no way to get out of it that quickly.”

Perhaps if he were president, Domenici said, he could direct the country in a massive effort to become energy independent.

President Bush caught the attention of many Americans when he said the country was addicted to oil in his State of the Union speech earlier this year.

“We know that fossil fuels are a finite resource,” Department of Energy spokesman Craig Stevens said in a statement. “That is why we are investing millions of dollars in new technologies and working on forward-leaning policies to increase and diversify our existing resources.”

As part of Bush’s Advanced Energy Initiative, Stevens pointed out, the administration has requested a significant increase in renewable- and alternative-energy funding in the Department’s 2007 budget. In addition, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman has asked the Petroleum Council for a report on existing supply and demand for oil that is due next year around this time.

Meanwhile, in the House, just eight U.S. representatives joined Udall and U.S. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., in their House Peak Oil Caucus founded last October.

Bartlett, a scientist, says the country is behaving as if crude oil, which holds tremendous energy, will last forever. “When our grandchildren look back at us, we will appear as irresponsible to them as kids who found the cookie jar and they just pigged out,” he said.

Bartlett said the country’s dependence on foreign oil — about 60 percent of what Americans burn in gas tanks every day — is “a totally unacceptable national security concern.”

The government could do a better job, he said.

“We have not been honest with the American people,” Bartlett said. “… Prices are up because you and me and nearly 7 billion other people are using more oil than is readily available, and that drives the prices up. It’s supply and demand. It’s very simple.”

Bartlett said he’s met with Bush and political adviser Karl Rove about the matter. “I think he understands it,” Bartlett said of Bush. But other, more urgent needs tend to push long-term problems off the table in Washington.

“Ultimately, the war in Iraq and immigration will fade into insignificance compared to the problems that an energy-deficient world faces.”

Meanwhile, public discussion among some interested in peak oil has steered toward doomsday scenarios. For example, Bartlett cited one author who predicted a worldwide recession at best.

There’s no silver bullet alternative to replace fossil fuels, Bartlett believes. But he’d like to see something better than the Energy Policy Act of 2005, carried by Domenici and U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., which he voted against.

“I’ve seen only tepid lip service coming out of Washington for alternatives,” Bartlett said.

Bartlett, 80, has 10 children and 15 grandchildren. He said he’s motivated to leave them a better world.

“”I think there’s a tremendous opportunity to harness the creativity and the commitment of the American people,” he said. “… We may have an energy shortage, but I think there’s a bigger shortage of responsible leadership.”

The switch to alternative energy will happen with or without Congress, Bartlett said. “We will transition to alternatives,” he said. “Geology will assure that. When oil and gas and coal are gone, we will have alternatives all right.”

Udall and Bartlett recently hosted Matt Simmons, a Texas energy expert, to speak in Washington. Simmons is the author of Twilight in the Desert: The coming Oil Shock and the World Economy.

Udall said more people are listening to him and Bartlett now.

“I think that as we go by every day and see where oil prices are and see how unpredictable the market is that people want some stability,” he said. “And I think members of Congress are starting to address this along with the other issues like global warming, energy efficiency and a move toward renewable and alternative forms of energy.”

For Domenici, alternatives include oil shale, tar sands and ethanol. And he supports more domestic production.

“I know that the world shouldn’t expect to have oil forever,” Domenici said.