Peak Oil News

By now you may have seen some prototypes of the new-car fuel economy stickers on which the EPA is seeking public comment. The versions that prominently display letter grades for overall fuel economy performance are certainly eye-catching, rising above the potentially confusing mix of numbers and graphics in the body of the sticker. Yet although the current stickers are clearly inadequate to illuminate the choices and consequences associated with buying vehicles powered by an increasingly diverse array of fuels, devising a similarly simple summary page may be beyond the skills of even the cleverest engineers and graphic designers. And in the hyper-connected world in which we now live, the necessity of presenting all this information in one place deserves at least as much thought as the prop...

While the Middle East may have a reputation for instability and occasional violence, there's no denying the vast riches it has to offer patient investors. Just months after the announcement of $1 trillion worth of minerals in Afghanistan comes word of oil discoveries in Israel... AdvertisementHow To Make Money From Every Car Produced Despite what you may read in the papers, the global auto industry is thriving… In fact auto production world-wide is increasing 6% this year. And after a four-year study, we uncovered how you could get paid from every single one made — no matter what happens to an automaker’s share price. Click here to find out how... Israel may finally be able to tell its Middle Eastern neighbors where they can stick their oil — something the United States h...

The farmers' market was absolutely packed this past Saturday. Of course, it was my own fault for getting up so late... If you're not there by 7:00 a.m., you have to maneuver through the flocks of chatty stay-at-home moms and hungover hipsters that always seem to congregate around the Thai food stand that displays deep-fried spring rolls like delicate glass ornaments. But despite the larger crowds that morning, there was still plenty of food to go around at the stand where I pick up my weekly share of fruits and vegetables. You see, I belong to a local CSA (Community Supported Agriculture). I pay a few hundred dollars at the beginning of the year, then throughout the summer and fall, I get a “share” of whatever my farmer grows. This year, the Japanese eggplant, cantaloupe, and...

Since I've been taking potshots at German energy policy recently, I was pleased to see that it appears the country's government is nearing a reasonable compromise concerning nuclear power, which accounts for 22% of the electricity generated in Germany. The Financial Times reported yesterday that the CDU/FDP coalition is likely to propose extending the life of the country's reactors by 12-15 years, in order to give renewable energy sources more time to ramp up. Yet while the extension makes enormous sense from the perspective of emissions and energy security, I'm puzzled by the plan's implicit assumption that nuclear power is valuable only as a bridge to more renewable energy, rather than as a key part of any future, low-emission energy mix.In 2007 Germany's 17 reactors generated 140 billio...

Energy is — and always will be — a profitable long-term play. You should know that by now. If you don't believe it, you're better off burning your cash for warmth. Last week, I shed some light on the Mexican oil crisis. At first glance, I'll admit my sour view of Mexico's oil production is more doom and gloom, but I'm hard pressed to find a reason why they won't self-destruct from Pemex's production collapsing. But does that grim outlook mean we're should throw in the towel? Absolutely not... Several weeks ago, I asked a quick, simple question: Right now, which energy plays are you most comfortable holding for the long run? The answers that flooded my e-mail inbox shocked me. The vast majority of responses were one of the supermajor oil companies: ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutc...

Welcome to the Energy and Capital Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Energy and Capital and sister publication articles. You know these guys, right? That's Buffett, Icahn, and Paulson — three of the most legendary investors in the game. But do you know what they all have in common besides being multi-billionaires? They each added to energy positions in the last quarter. AdvertisementJr. Mining Outfit Unlocks $550 Billion Deposit ... And surges 207%! Trading for $1.42, this tiny junior recently unlocked a metals deposit in Minnesota that's worth more than half a trillion dollars! As official mining operations begin, investors loading up right now could easily triple their money over the coming months... Click here to find out why...

We're now at the time of year when kids start dreading going back to school, moms dream of free time during the day, and granddads pick a weekend to winterize the boat or shutter the cabin. Us resource guys, however, think about buying natural gas for the annual winter price boost. But this year the markets aren’t buying it. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) came out with a bearish report. Last week, the price of natural gas fell as much as $1.36 per million Btu; after the report, prices fell to $3.77 — dipping well below $4 for the first time since May. The government report stated: Natural gas in storage totaled 3,052 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of August 20, about 6 percent above the 5-year (2005-2009) average. The implied net injection for the week was 40 Bcf,...

I recently ran across a story indicating that regulators in Arizona are considering implementing a feed-in tariff (FIT) for solar power in that state. This is somewhat ironic, coming as it does amidst a wave of hotly-debated reductions in European solar FITs, in response to the burden they've imposed on electricity customers and the unintended consequences they've created. With Germany, Spain, and now apparently France all slashing their FITs, it's worth taking a look at how these policies differ from the US federal and typical state incentives for solar power, and why they might not be the best choice for promoting solar power here, particularly in places with solar resources as inherently attractive as Arizona's.As I've noted before, an FIT is effectively a tax, although imposed by utili...

It happens almost every day. For some unknown reason, tow trucks seem to have a field day outside my office. Countless times I've seen people scramble outside, only to watch as their car is pulled down the street. Believe me, the price of getting your vehicle back is steep enough to make you regret being towed. I have a feeling I'm not the only one of us that has experienced this nightmare. AdvertisementMillions of Lives Saved -- A Handful of Early Investors Made RICH... According to our resident biotech expert, one small American company's "cell-shock" technology will soon be the global Gold Standard for the treatment and prevention of all the major cancers, influenza, malaria, HIV, and more... Saving tens of millions of lives annually worldwide. Click HERE before the news spreads to get...

Last week the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy released its Annual Energy Review for 2009. Although it doesn't offer predictions concerning the energy transition that was the subject of last Wednesday's posting, it does include a wealth of charts and graphs visualizing the remarkable energy shifts that have already occurred in the last several decades. Understanding these could help calibrate our expectations concerning the pace of the hoped-for clean energy revolution, while shedding light on characteristics that could move some technologies into the market faster than others. For energy the past isn't necessarily prologue, but it's certainly relevant.Start with the US primary energy overview for the last 60 years, which shows the steady growth of our energy consum...

This is a presentation by Dr. David Korowicz from Feasta, given at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009. It can be downloaded here: Things fall apart: Some thoughts on complexity, supply chains, infrastructure & collapse dynamics, PDF 23 slides, 1.3 MB, text of spoken presentation. It was previously posted on The Oil Drum in August 2009. Slide 2: Poem This poem by W.B. Yeats inspired my talk's title. Slide 3: A 16,000 thousand year switch Suppose I were to take your new born infant, and by some magic transport her back through 16,000 years to a cave in what is now Lascaux in south-western France. Let's swap your baby with a baby born to a Neolithic mother. There is no reason to believe that in time both children would not turn out to be well-adjusted, unremarkabl...

Editor's Note: Keep this report handy — it contains only a few of many trading techniques that could help make you a very successful trader. Some of this story may sound familiar, as I've covered these trading techniques in the pages of Wealth Daily... But today I want to reiterate them to demonstrate how they can also be used with energy stocks.—————————— About a week ago, we touched on using MACD and DMI to spot trend reversals in energy stocks. And while using these two indicators have been successful, no system has 100% success... As one reader named Harry pointed out (with regards to natural gas article and our use of MACD and DMI): Great article! I can see how these indicators worked great on the fall of the Dow and the rise of the natural gas charts. Both the M...

The standard knock on carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is that it hasn't been tested and proven on an industrial scale. That's really only true in the narrow sense in which you start with coal, produce electricity, and then collect and bury the CO2 that comes out the stack--which I imagine is what CCS evokes for most people who have even heard of the technology. Some years back, the US government set out to close that gap by building a large-scale test facility to demonstrate the coal-to-CCS cycle, with help from a consortium of industry partners. The program was called FutureGen. It died in 2008 after reported cost overruns but was revived in a different format last year. Now the reoriented effort has spawned a new project at a different location--though still in Illinois--to replac...

You've probably heard about the recent flooding in China (and in Pakistan, but we're not focusing on that today). Over the weekend, the Yalu River in Northeast China swelled to dangerous levels, killing four people and displacing 100,000. This comes after floods in the South and West killed almost 4,000 earlier this year. You've heard about this because it's the kind of story that's come to be known as 'man bites dog'. Common occurrences — like dogs biting men — rarely make the news. But throw a little twist in there — some urgency, some natural violence, some death — and these kinds of stories become an editor's dream. By extension, this type of reporting makes statistically uncommon events seem to occur with great frequency. There are plenty of examples of this: shark attacks,...

In the 1999 movie Office Space, there's a great bit of dialogue where three workers discuss the question What would you do if you had a million dollars? I'll share the exchange with you here... Peter: “Our high school guidance counselor used to ask us what you would do if you had a million dollars, and didn't have to work. And invariably, whatever we would say, that was supposed to be our careers. If you wanted to build cars, then you're supposed to be an auto mechanic.” Samir: “So what did you say?” Peter: “I never had an answer. I guess that's why I'm working at Initech.” Michael: “No, you're working at Initech because that question is BS to begin with. If everyone listened to her, there would be no janitors, because no one would want to clea...

Welcome to Energy and Capital Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Energy and Capital and sister publications. Lately, it feels as if the United States has become too comfortable, particularly in regards to the energy picture. “Why is that?” you ask. I'll let you decide this one. Splashed across headlines this week has been overly-optimistic news — enough for people to sit back and relax. The EIA's weekly report showed that total crude and fuel products rose to 1.13 billion barrels last week — the highest level in two decades. As expected, a barrage of bearish price predictions rushed to center stage. U.S. domestic production — which peaked at 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 — saw its first year-over-year increase...

I'm as reluctant to insert myself into the debate over what happened to all the oil that leaked from BP's Macondo well between April 22 and July 15--when the second cap stopped the flow--as I was concerning the earlier controversy regarding flow-rate estimates. At the same time, I find the coverage of this story lacking in crucial details that could help us to understand how much of the oil evaporated into the warm air of the Gulf or degraded naturally, how much was collected, and how much potentially remains in the sea. The assessment issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on August 4, 2010 has been disputed by some scientists, and reports of lingering oil plumes add to the public's apprehension that the pieces don't quite add up. But although I don't have ne...

The August 2010 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.24 MB, 33 pp). Figure 1 - Non-OPEC crude oil production January 2002 to May 2010, Datasource: EIA. The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Below the fold is an executive summary, subscription form to receive the Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail, and latest graphics. For much more detail and a country by country profile, download the .pdf. Subscribe to receive Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail Latest Developments: 1) Conventional crude production - Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 103,000 b/d from April...

The August 13 issue of Science, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), devotes a special section to "Scaling Up Alternative Energy". Most of the section, including some nifty comparative infographics, can be accessed free of charge until August 27, requiring only a free site registration. I encourage you to read it while it's available. The articles cover topics such as the prospects for cellulosic ethanol and the challenges of siting renewable energy projects. Another entitled, "Do We Have the Energy for the Next Transition?" particularly caught by attention. I've been focused on this issue from the inception of this blog in 2004 and long before that. This is an issue that's not about to go away or be solved overnight, no matter how much wishfulness...

In this post I present an analysis of how OPEC oil supplies have responded to changes in crude oil prices during the last 10 years. My objective was to estimate OPEC's probable marketable crude oil capacities as of May 2010, based on responses of OPEC oil supplies to price changes. This approach suggests that as of May 2010, OPEC’s marketable spare crude oil capacity was approximately 2 Mb/d and that a majority of this spare capacity is most likely in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE. The stacked columns show each OPEC member’s crude oil supplies and OPEC’s supplies of lease condensates and NGLs between January 2001 and May 2010. The average monthly oil price is also plotted using amounts on the left hand y-axis. I also briefly present a recent history of OECD and Non O...

Last month's announcement that China was cutting its export quota for rare earth elements by 72% for the second half of 2010 didn't seem to attract wide attention, but now that the other half of its strategy has been revealed, that might change. Today's Wall St. Journal reported overtures from Chinese officials to firms interested in accessing these materials, which are critical for the production of some components of renewable energy technology and advanced vehicles. The apparent deal: invest in rare earth processing in China to obtain access, with the output from new facilities incorporated into products for the rapidly-growing internal market or export. Not only would this practice compound the difficulties faced by US and other foreign renewable energy firms seeking to market their pr...

Filed under: Etc., Oil Sands, Green DailyOil sand samples obtained from the Yousha Mountain in the Qaidam basin located in the northwestern region of China have been sampled, tested and deemed "feasible" for further development and exploration. As the China Petroleum Daily reports, samples contain a high percentage of clean oil that should make the process of extraction and refinement a relatively low-cost operation. The report states that the Qaidam oils sands reserve could contain enough usable crude to allow for the daily extraction of 700 metric tons. However, the report did not list any detailed info regarding the total crude reserves contained within the region. Once extraction begins, the Qaidam basin will become the country's first oil sand project. China intends to invest additi...

I recently ran across a mention in the New York Times of a new study suggesting a variety of energy and climate measures the administration could undertake on their own, without requiring new legislation passed by Congress. I've been thinking about this during some long stretches of driving this week. At first glance, the group's ideas merit consideration, and they might indeed be sufficient to meet the near-term emissions reduction goals the US endorsed at last year's Copenhagen climate conference. However, as tempting as such an approach might be in a year of legislative gridlock on energy, its pitfalls probably outweigh its benefits.I haven't had time to scrutinize the report of the Presidential Climate Action Project item by item, since I'm on vacation. It caught my eye mainly because...

The discussion about our energy supply is full of extremely optimistic expectations. There are many people who believe that full replacement of fossil with renewable energy sources in an extremely short time span is possible. Such ideas have been publicly voiced in Al Gore’s call for 100% renewable energy in the United States within 10 years, and Jacobson & Delucchi’s plan to power 100 percent of the planet with renewable by 2030 published in Scientific American. Their optimism stems from ignoring the inherent gradual nature of energy transitions and the quality differences between energy sources. Both issues are described in Vaclav Smil’s new book, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects. Vaclav Smil, a Professor at the University of Manitoba, has been w...

Driving across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin, it's impossible not to be struck by the dominance of corn cultivation in this part of the Midwest. Those "amber waves of grain" in the song look more like amber waves of corn tassels, here. My family makes this drive every few years, and my unscientific impression is that we see more and larger corn fields every time. Given my focus on energy, I couldn't resist spending a few minutes using the hotel Wi-Fi to check on my hunch that most of this has been driven by the explosion of ethanol production in the last decade--up an average of 22% per year since 2000.Based on data from the USDA, corn production has grown substantially in the last decade, though by a much smaller annual percentage than ethanol output, and with the peaks and valley...

A few days after my post on The Chinese Coal Monster was published I received an email from Jean Laherrere with the following charts and some comments: One of the puzzles addressed in the original post was the fact that BP data showed Chinese production and consumption to be broadly in balance making it difficult to explain reports of surging coal imports. Jean's main point is that EIA data provides a different picture to that provided by BP and that the BP data are likely wrong. It is very important to know that China is importing much more than in the past. In the above graph, with EIA data, it is a cliff, while BP data show a plateau. JL The EIA and China year book figures show China plunging from net exporter (positive numbers) to net importer (negative numbers) of coal. Jean points t...

This post was published in June 2009 under the name The Fifth Problem: Peak Capital. The five main elements of the world model developed in "The Limits to Growth" study according to Magne Myrtveit . The world's global positioning system (GPS) is in trouble. The US government accountability office (GAO) has published a worrysome report on the situation. The GPS satellites are wearing down and, if no new investments are made, the accuracy of the positioning system will be reduced. Eventually, the whole system may cease functioning. What's happening here? The GPS system is a pinnacle of modern technology, a demonstration that the thing we call "progress" exists. If you have a car navigator, the idea of going back to clumsy printed maps just seems impossible. And that is just...

One of my basic assumptions about our energy future is that most automobiles will eventually be electrified. That's based on extensive scenario work done with my former colleagues at Texaco, Inc. in the late 1990s. Nothing I've seen since then has changed my view on that. However, vehicle electrification is not necessarily synonymous with "electric vehicle" (EV) in its common usage to connote a car powered only by electricity stored in batteries. It's a much broader category, covering all three electrification options now slated to be available to consumers by year-end: hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and "pure" EVs. It also encompasses fuel cell vehicles, though these have yet to move beyond the test-market stage. The characteristics of the three current varieties of electrified vehicles differ...

In Europe, natural gas has great importance. Many people believe (some countries even instituted policies) that it will be the fuel that will become the bridge to an energy future with less reliance on coal and nuclear power. Furthermore, in 2009, about 26% of the primary energy consumption of the 27 members of the European Union came from natural gas, making it a very important fuel today. In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply. Based on my analysis, there may be a shortfall in supply very soon, especially if sufficient new sources of supply are not found, or if natural gas is used as a substitute for other energy sources. More specifically, the findings from my analysis a...

When legislation is introduced in the US Congress, most of the discussion typically concerns its specific provisions. Sometimes, as in the case of the "public option" absent from the final healthcare bill, notable omissions vie for attention. However, in the case of this year's greatly-diminished energy bill released this week by Senator Reid (D-NV), most of the controversy seems to be focused on its long list of missing elements, including but not limited to cap & trade, a national renewable energy standard for electricity, and extensions for various expiring renewable energy incentives. That's not to say that what's left doesn't deserve careful scrutiny, particularly provisions affecting offshore oil and gas drilling. But compared to the energy bill that might have been, this draft looks...

I've been going though BP's second-quarter earnings press release and results to get a better sense of the impact of the Gulf Coast oil spill on the company's finances. It's a measure of the scale of a "Supermajor" like BP and the robustness of its underlying cash flows that it could continue to invest more than $6 billion (B) in capital projects and acquisitions in the quarter and even pay down a bit of debt, while recording a charge of $32.2 B against earnings related to the Deepwater Horizon disaster and ensuing oil leak. To put that figure in perspective, it's more than the market capitalization of Exelon Corporation, the largest owner and operator of nuclear power plants in the US. Yet among all of the remarkable and morbidly-fascinating numbers presented here, the one that stood out...

How can you not love T. Boone Pickens? Here's someone who made his fortune in oil, and now he's advising us to switch major parts of the US economy to wind and natural gas. And unlike some of the other concepts for taking a big bite out of our oil consumption, his current idea actually stands a chance of making a significant difference on a timescale of years, rather than decades. At the same time, however, Mr. Pickens has sometimes been a tad bit less than accurate with the numbers he uses to make his points. Remember those ads about the $700 billion per year we were sending overseas to buy oil? Even at its absolute peak in July 2008, reality was more like $500 billion, and the total for 2008 ended up around $385 billion, based on net imports and the average refiner acquisition cost for t...

The July 2010 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.24 MB, 33 pp). Figure 1 - North America Oil Consumption January 2002 to May 2010, Datasource: JODI. The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Below the fold is an executive summary, subscription form to receive the Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail, and latest graphics. For much more detail and a country by country profile, download the .pdf. Subscribe to receive Oilwatch Monthly by e-mail Latest Developments: 1) Conventional crude production - Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 100,000 b/d from March t...

If the present global temperature trend continues for the remainder of the year, we're bound to hear a growing chorus of reports about 2010 being the warmest year since records have been kept. The first six months of 2010 already appear to have been the warmest first half on record. Or was it? When you examine the numerical result from the National Climatic Data Center upon which this determination rests, it turns out that January-June of this year apparently topped the previous six-month record set in 1998 by just 0.03°F. Not only is that difference quite small, but there's a good chance it doesn't exist at all and is merely the result of average temperature data being tallied to more decimal places than the accuracy of the instruments recording them warrants. So when someone tell...

This is a guest post on my request from DoDo, contributing editor at European Tribune, who works in the railway sector. In technical English (and many other languages), electricity generation is commonly divided into two basic load regimes: base load and peak load. However, other languages recognise three basic regimes (for example German: Grundlast - Mittellast - Spitzenlast), and this division also appears in English in the usage of some international bodies (for example ENS). In this article, I want to demonstrate why the 3-part view makes more sense, use it to show the place of exports and renewables in the power mix, and say a few words about the prospects of de-carbonising electricity generation. Base, intermediate & peak load In the common view of technical English, in the co...

For the first time in many years I find myself in general agreement with one of the major ethanol trade associations on a key matter of energy policy. Last week Growth Energy, which represents a significant portion of the US ethanol and biofuels industry, announced its support for a phase-out of the federal Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit, or "blender's credit", in preference to using these funds to provide incentives for constructing the infrastructure needed to offer ethanol at every gas station, and to promote vehicles that can safely burn higher-percentage ethanol blends. This looks like a prudent shift for several reasons, and I hope that the Congress is paying close attention.No, I haven't suddenly abandoned my aversion to ethanol subsidies that have dragged on for more than thr...

This week Secretary of Interior Salazar reissued the administration's deepwater drilling moratorium, with a few new twists and a notional six month limit. This happened in spite of loud protests from the states most affected by the spill, some of their representatives in Washington, and even some skepticism from the heads of the President's own drilling commission. The old ban is still in court, and the new one probably will be soon, but this is really all moot, because whether the Salazar moratorium is technically in force or not, the legal battle over it has created a moratorium limbo that few companies would be willing to test, given the costs involved. One irony of all this is that in addition to the obvious indirect winners in OPEC, there's at least one direct winner in this hemispher...

I had the pleasure of accompanying my most famous client to visit another offshore wind farm under construction with the same turbines. We took the train to lovely Harwich an hour and a half away from London, and set out to visit the soon-to-be largest offshore wind farm. This is part of my wind series. As noted before, I advise wind farm developers on their financing needs, including, as noted in the first link in the diary, US developers. It will be the first of several massive wind farms which are larger than 500MW each (meaning they can produce close to 2 TWh of electricity per year), and a price tag in the EUR 1.5-2 billion range. That price can be split roughly in 3 similar-sized bits, being (i) the turbines, (ii) the marine construction work, including the foundations, and (iii) th...

The quote of the day, as far as I'm concerned, comes from the head of Babcock & Wilcox Nuclear Energy. "Bechtel doesn't get involved in science projects," said Mr. Mowry, in reference to news that Bechtel Corp., one of the world's largest engineering & construction contractors, is joining Babcock's effort to get its small modular nuclear power plant certified and ready to deploy in large numbers. The addition of Bechtel lends further credibility to an initiative that already draws significant authority from Babcock's long experience building small reactors for naval vessels, as I noted when they launched this program a year ago. Bechtel's participation and investment in small nukes signals that interest in this idea is growing and narrows some of the uncertainties about its future. Per...

Just a year ago it seemed a near-certainty that the US would eventually adopt some form of cap & trade mechanism for greenhouse gases (GHGs). After repeated failed attempts to pass cap & trade legislation in the Senate, the House of Representatives narrowly passed the Waxman-Markey bill, HR-2454, and the Senate was expected to follow, bolstered by a filibuster-proof Democratic majority and urged on by a popular new President. Then came the divisive debate over healthcare legislation, the off-year election of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Climategate, and an oil spill that among other things derailed the latest bi-partisan (tri-partisan?) Senate climate bill. Today, the prospects for climate legislation remain highly uncertain, while the clock runs out on the current Congressiona...