Peak Oil News

Utility scale solar got a big boost this week as Interior Secretary Ken Salazar announced a new plan to designate 24 tracts of public land administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) as study areas for development of solar power plants. The effort is in support of President Obama's target to generate 10% of U.S. electricity from renewable sources by 2010, and 25% 2025. The nation currently generates more than 1000 megawatts (MW) from photovoltaics, and 600 MW from thermal concentrated solar power (CSP) systems. The BLM plans to spend $22 million evaluating about 670,000 acres, or more than 1,000 square miles of land, in Nevada, Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah in search of sites with at least three square miles of good solar exposure, favorable slopes, access to...

The recent oil price rally has taken a break due to the persistence of recessionary low demand. While lower prices may finally translate into lower crude oil and natural gas output in July 2009 than in 2008, US demand numbers show little sign of recovery. This reality makes it tough for renewable energy to compete currently, but is a relief to struggling consumers. Oil Output Slides Slower than Demand Oil demand is down more than 5% in 2009 thus far and shows few signs of change. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Weekly Report shows demand of most oil-based fuels nosediving. Gasoline, distillates (mostly diesel), and propane demand fell 3.2%, 24%, and a whopping 39%, respectively. As a tempering force to supply gains, US crude output slid 1.8% to 5.163 Mbd last week, ju...

Now that the Waxman-Markey Bill, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009--all 1428 pages of it--has been narrowly passed by the House of Representatives, its fate rests in the hands of the US Senate, a body that has spurned a long series of cap & trade bills. The Senate's rules will require a much larger plurality just to bring such a bill to a vote, and that doesn't look easy, despite the belated resolution of the Minnesota race. The situation is further complicated by the existence of the Senate's own recently-drafted energy legislation, the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 (ACELA) from the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee chaired by Senator Bingaman (D-NM). Although lacking a counterpart to Waxman-Markey's cap & trade provisions, ACELA seems in many...

Mother Nature News celebrated the renewable energy efforts of Austin, TX, the recycling of San Francisco, the green roofs of Chicago, and the bikeways of Portland, OR. But they left our fair city of New York out of their list of top 10 green US cities. Now it's up to all of us in NYC to work hard to get our green mojo back. Transportation We have one of the best public transit systems, with a new subway line on the East Side being built to alleviate some of the current rush hour crowds. A strong transit system is one of the biggest pillars of Bloomberg's PlaNYC goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2030. And under the leadership of Department of Transportation Commissioner Janette Sadik-Khan, we have made great strides in our bicycling infrastructure. In the last three years, the...

In the ensuing media onslaught since the House passed the "Climate Change Bill," one thing has been lost. It's not just a climate change bill. It's also an energy bill. Initially, at least, this was supposed to be advantageous to the bill's passage. It has proven anything but. Lost somewhere among the dubious estimates of how much this bill would cost citizens and the clever, punnish names being used to decry cap and trade is the more important part of this bill. . . for energy investors and for the country. It's the energy part of the bill. And it's been all but ignored. The bill, after all, is called the American Clean Energy and Security Act. No cap or trade in the title. Let's not forget that carbon (and other greenhouse gases) will eventually be capped or taxed. The Supreme Co...

Water is everywhere. At least when it comes to headlines and human interest stories. When it comes to the actual resource, water is getting harder and harder to come by. It's a profitable trend that I've been following for quite some time. The premise is elementary: There is a limited amount of freshwater on earth. Increased withdrawals to support booming populations and agricultural needs coupled with lax conservation practices and industrial pollution have led to a serious problem. Add to that years-long droughts in the American Southwest and Southeast, and water is the new hot topic. I've been saying this would happen. Water Problem & Profitable Solutions Truth be told, the water industry isn't very exciting. For years the industry has lumbered around, offering decent dividends but...

Most of my posts have focused on the environmental and public health impacts of burning fossil fuels due to their greenhouse gas emissions. But the 12 deaths from a liquefied petroleum gas explosion on an Italian train today are an important reminder that reduced emissions are not the only benefit from efficiency and renewable energy. Another stark difference between fossil energy and renewable energy is the risk to workers and others close to the fuel from the mine to the point of use. Thousands of Deaths per Year The same combustibility that makes fossil fuels a generous energy source claims the lives of thousands of people per year worldwide. A natural gas plant in Saudi Arabia recently exploded and killed 40 people. Several helicopters ferrying offshore oil workers have crashed in the...

Things were much different when I made my 40-hour trek to Alberta's oil sands. At the time, oil prices were passing $70/bbl and on their way to $100 a barrel. I absolutely had to see the massive oil sands operations in Fort McMurray. Can you blame me? Production from the oil sands is one of the reasons why Canada remains the largest source of oil for the U.S. The sky was the limit for Alberta as oil made its run to $147 per barrel. And it wasn't just the U.S. that had its sights set on oil sands production. I distinctly remember how all the signs in our hotel were written in both English and Chinese. What a difference a year can make. As I'm sure you know, Alberta was hit extremely hard when oil prices collapsed to $30 per barrel in late 2008. Once oil prices fell below $40 per barre...

US gasoline prices have attracted a fair amount of attention recently, as they climbed from a national average of just over $2.00 per gallon in mid-April to $2.69 last week. Much of that increase came just before Memorial Day, which historically signals the start of the driving season and higher consumption. Some regions have even begun to see prices at $3.00 or higher. As the news media has reported on this trend, I've heard more than one reporter comment that the recent price hikes have erased the effective economic stimulus that lower gasoline prices provided earlier this year. That didn't sound quite right, considering how much higher prices were last summer, but it wasn't until I looked at the actual data that I realized the stimulus has actually grown in the last month or so, not shr...

One of the most compelling speakers at our last day of REFF Wall Street was Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of Asset Management, Kevin Parker. The focus of his talk was the importance for the finance community to respond to resource scarcity amidst a growing world population and the threat of catastrophic climate change. Parker cited capital markets validating renewable energy with scores of billions in investment over the last few quarters, while “clean coal� is only a dream receiving government support because it is years away from commercial viability. Parker also emphasized the opportunity over the next several months as money moves from the sidelines (safe-haven money market accounts) back into the market. He talked of more than $10 trillion, of which a small fraction...

Nate Hagens gives his presentation at the "Peak Summit" in Alcatraz. 114 slides in 45 minutes for what may be a true world record in information concentration. The joint TOD-ASPO summit in Alcatraz, Italy, is over. It was held on the 27-28 June 2009, with the participation of more than fifty people that came mainly from Europe, but also from the US and even from Australia. The participants exchanged views on such subjects as resource depletion, oil and gas, energy security, climate change, complexity, the collapse of the Roman Empire, economic trends, and how to catch monkeys (the last item as part of Nate Hagens talk). The idea of the summit was to do something more informal and more friendly than the standard ASPO conference. The idea was also to get together people who, so far, had...

Last night, the US House of Representatives passed climate legislation to get greenhouse gas emissions falling to 83% below 2005 levels in 2050. This step is huge, and needs to be followed by a similar bill passing the Senate in the weeks ahead to get the President's signature and become law. Here are some details from the Solar Energy Industries Association: “Dear SEIA Member, Today, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) by a vote of 219 to 212.  This is the first time that climate change legislation has passed either house of Congress.  The historic nature of this achievement cannot be understated.  Today, the House sent a clear signal to financial markets and investors that there will be a premium on zero-carbon energy p...

Peak Oil BluesAre you 'coping' or 'freaking out' about Peak Oil?What's a 'normal' reaction to learning about a post-oil world?Fear? Anxiety? Shock? Depression?No one really knows.Many people say preparation is "90% mental," but how do you separate out what's "mental preparation" from what's just "acting mental?"Here we explore what we've learned about various emotional reactions.Our goal is to help you build the kind of world you want to live in. Sanely.

I have dished out a healthy share of criticism about the paths we are taking into the energy future, so perhaps it's time I offered some paths of my own. I will outline them as simply as possible, since the data and thinking behind them could fill a book. First we must know where we're going. Credible models show that by the end of this century, essentially all of the fossil fuels on earth will be consumed—oil, natural gas, and coal. Presumably, whatever fuels do remain at that point will be reserved for their highest and most valuable purposes like making crude oil into plastics and pharmaceuticals, not burning it in 15% efficient internal combustion engines. Consider the following world model for all fossil fuels: Source: "Olduvai Revisited 2008," The Oil Drum, by Luís de Sous...

The world is watching as US federal leaders vote on climate legislation that would put US emissions on a downward trajectory in the decades ahead. While some organizations such as Greenpeace do not support the Waxman-Markey bill due to its large offsets provisions and its free allocation of many emission permits, most environmental organizations are supporting it and hoping to improve it in the years ahead. You can be a part of history! Here is an action alert from Environmental Defense Fund to make a call or send an email to Congress to support a Yes vote for the American Clean Energy & Security (ACES) Act: “We are 24 hours away from the most important climate vote of our lives. Everything hangs in the balance. Either the House passes the American Clean Energy and Security Act and we...

Falls Church News-Press OnlineBy Tom WhippleSince the beginning of the economic troubles some 18 months ago, the question on nearly everyone's mind was; "When will the recovery begin?"A lot of water has gone over the dam in the last 18 months. An official recession has been declared, millions have lost their jobs, much of Detroit has gone bankrupt and the government has spent trillions on bailouts and stimuli. Three months ago the collective wisdom of investors concluded that the recession was nearly over. This resulted in one of the faster rebounds the stock markets have ever known --- based on the flimsiest of evidence and much wishful thinking.In the last six months the demand for oil has fallen and stockpiles grew while, oddly enough, prices rose. Part of this increase was caused by sp...

New Energy Finance CEO Michael Liebreich gave Renewable Energy Financial Forum (REFF) participants an informative presentation to the hundreds of financial leaders filling New York City’s Waldorf-Astoria. Based on his firm’s research, he called the first quarter of 2009 the bottom for renewable energy finance. He doesn’t say we are in euphoric times, but does believe renewables are poised to reach record growth again within a few quarters. Based on their recent data, New Energy Finance predicts second quarter finance to be about double first quarter numbers and back to 2007 numbers at ~$25 billion. His slides showed a projection that US wind grows faster than any year except the record 2008. He also predicts stimulus funds will begin to help the efficiency and renewabl...

Investors ChronicleBy Jonathan EleyDebate has raged about 'peak oil' ever since Shell geologist M. King Hubbert first outlined the theory in 1956. It's the idea that once around half the world's reserves of oil have been extracted, production enters a slow and inevitable decline that no amount of investment can reverse. Believers in peak oil argue that once it becomes apparent that the peak is near, or even past, prices will rise sharply, and permanently. Detractors say the theory ignores geology and technological progress.YES, says Matthew R. Simmons, founder of Simmons International:"Many supposed energy experts refute peak oil, and mistakenly think the term means that we are running out of oil. Peak Oil does not mean "running out of oil". The world will likely never run out of oil, but...

How much of an unappetizing jumble can you put into a dog's breakfast, before the dog refuses to eat it? That is the question that the authors of the Waxman-Markey "climate bill" appear intent on testing, before it goes to an expected vote of the entire House of Representatives tomorrow. Aside from addressing truly momentous, economy-altering matters--a cap & trade system for greenhouse gas emissions and a national renewable electricity standard to promote green power even more than cap & trade would, anyway--this bill includes more than its share of tenuously-related add-ons, some of which might be nearly as significant as the provisions that have garnered the headlines. Nor has last week's Congressional Budget Office analysis settled all the questions about the bill's likely cost to the...

I spent yesterday elbow deep in breakout sessions at the sixth annual Renewable Energy Finance Forum (REFF) Wall Street. So did 700 other top level cleantech executives, the "smart money" if you will.But rather than whittle down my eight pages of notes into a lengthy piece about the worldly state of the industry-which I will do eventually-I'd rather offer you a simple set of statistics today that can paint the picture just as clearly.These are numbers pulled right from my notes, in no particular order. They come from various primary sources, from Under Secretary of Energy Kristina Johnson to Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nobuo Tanaka. If you don't want to invest in cleantech after reading these statistics, you may need to check your pulse.Cleantech Statisti...

The barons of Wall Street have been blamed for the global financial crisis. They have been the target of Main Street ire and the butt of talk show jokes.  But as I walk the halls of New York City’s Waldorf-Astoria today, it is clear that the hundreds of suits filling the conference space want to change that. These folks aim to foster a new image for the financial capital of our country. They aim to be leaders tackling climate change and empowering an energy revolution. The American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE) is convening a gathering of financial muscle for the second year, entitled the Renewable Energy Financial Forum (REFF). Last year, over 600 participants came to REFF Wall Street. This year, a similar number are filling the elegant Waldorf rooms to strategize a resur...

I just ran a quick search on Google Trends to check my hunch that the phrase "sustainable energy" has become a lot more common, lately. That seems to be the case, at least based on the volume of news references tracked by Google. While I would regard a greater focus on sustainability as a positive development, I'm much less comfortable with its indiscriminate use as a synonym for "renewable". It's dangerously simplistic to think that the only parameters of sustainability that matter for a given energy technology are the extent of the energy supply it taps and the greenhouse gas emissions associated with its use. However understandable that might be in light of concerns about climate change and energy security, the complexities it obscures could ultimately prove just as limiting, in their o...

"Are gas hydrates the answer to our energy problems?" You'd be surprised how many times I was asked this question over the weekend. It started with a few emails that began trickling into my inbox. By the time I was able to respond, the floodgates had opened. Considering that gas hydrates have been making headlines recently, I should have seen it coming. It's not often you find me this skeptical over a new source of energy. I would even bet a few of you thought I was headed on another tirade against LNG. I've always been clear to my readers about my concerns over liquefied natural gas. Not much has changed. I still think it is nothing more than a sinkhole for your hard-earned money, but we'll save that argument for another time. To be honest, the first thing that comes to mind about...

Newsweek.comBy Mohammed J. HerzallahCanadian economist Jeff Rubin has a somewhat oracular reputation. Since 2000, he has predicted a massive oil-price spike, and he was among the first in 2007 to prophesy that oil would soar over $100 per barrel (a few months later, he said $150 a barrel and was basically proved right again). Now, even though oil has dropped considerably from its peak, Rubin warns that it's bound to skyrocket once more and cause another, even greater economic crisis. In his new book, Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, he lays out how this energy crunch will occur—and why it will spell the end of globalization.The scenario goes something like this: the ongoing depletion of the world's oil resources, coupled with soaring demand from emerging economies like...

Biofuels have taken some big hits on both practical and public relations points in the past year, but new research says the longer-term outlook for biodiesel and non-ethanol fuels is healthy. While a major biofuels conference, the Fuel Ethanol Workshop and Expo, took place down the road in Denver this week, Colorado's Pike Research issued its new assessment of how food, waste, and farmable feedstocks can become an integral part of the world's transportation fuel mix. From an estimated $76 billion market size in 2010, Pike projects $247 billion in biofuel sales by 2020. And the progression towards that point includes 3 major market-oriented research watersheds: Waste grease conversion into fuel (i.e. vegetable oil to biodiesel) will advance to a commercial level in 2010. Jatropha, an ene...

A fierce debate now rages among economists, investors, pundits and the puppetmasters of fiscal policy: What's next, inflation or deflation? Has the most massive money-printing spree in history successfully stimulated the global economy and put it back on an upward course with rising inflation? Or are we still in a global downturn, temporarily masked by the stimulus, with prices, wages and employment still falling? A comforting 30% gain in the major stock market indexes since the March lows has given renewed confidence to the "green shoots" trumpeters who dominate the airwaves and the press. But grayer and wiser heads in the investing community—like Dave Rosenberg, John Mauldin, Nouriel Roubini, Gary Shilling, Peter Schiff, and Dave Cohen—have a more bearish view. The financial sect...

Yesterday the Senate passed this year's war funding bill, to which had been added the "cash for gas guzzlers" provisions that I described in early May. The bill should be signed by President Obama shortly and become law, just in time to help car dealers--including some who are losing their GM or Chrysler franchises--clear out the backlog of new cars that has accumulated during this protracted period of slow sales. The final version of this measure importantly requires that the "clunkers" traded in be scrapped, so that they don't end up consuming fuel and emitting pollutants somewhere else. While it is overly generous to new pickups and SUVs that would use only slightly fuel less than their predecessors, its minimum threshold of a 4 mpg improvement for passenger cars, or 10 mpg to qualif...

This is a guest post by Jean Lahrrère on the current knowledge of the deepwater Oil and Gas reserve at the Gulf of Mexico. In this first installment of the series Jean looks at data recently made public by the MMS and compares it to previously published information from the EIA and scout companies. In a coming installment Jean will discuss the recent Methane Hydrates findings announced in the region. Ace did an update on the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) on the 9th of February, 2009 (TOD 5081), but MMS has released in May of 2009 several reports: Gulf of Mexico oil and gas forecasts: 2009-2018 MMS 2009-012; Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 2009 MMS 2009-016 (updating Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 2008: America’s offshore energy future MMS 2008-013); Estimated oil and gas reserves, Gulf of Mexico...

Global GDP data from the USDA. Primary energy data and energy prices from the BP statistical reveiw of world energy 2009. Global GDP has grown steadily and continuously since WWII, in step with a growing global population and primary energy consumption (see below). Oil shocks have caused recessions compensated by higher energy prices that have bolstered global GDP at time of recession in the non-energy economy. A number of recent posts on The Oil Drum have explored the relationship between energy and the economy. Francois Cellier provided an overview of links between energy consumption and GDP on a per capita basis. This post will expand on the work of Francois taking a somewhat different approach. In a guest post, Ian Schindler provided an overview of the Ayres-Warr model of economic prod...

Pump prices are about to hit $2.70 per gallon nationwide, and oil has remained above $70 per barrel for several days. Most of the increase has come on expectations of economic recovery - like today's increase in projection for China's 2009 growth to 7.2% rather than 6.5% by the World Bank. But even more positive economic news will struggle to increase prices much more unless fuel inventories fall from their current highs. Petroleum Inventories Remain Very High The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday in its weekly petroleum report that US crude oil storage fell another ~1% last week. Even so, crude supplies remain more than 10% above average and US output has been rather robust above 5.2 million barrels per day (Mbd). The lower oil rig count in 2009 has yet to lower c...

In this post last month, I described how the recent storage build might serve as a good proxy for describing a well supplied oil market. I also presented data suggesting that actual physical oil consumption may have been running 2 - 3 Mb/d beneath supplies. In this post, I will present further evidence that oil markets have for some time been well supplied. Furthermore, it appears to me that both the run up last summer and the more recent run up in oil prices bear the hallmarks of an oil market now being heavily influenced by speculative forces. The chart above shows how IEA (The International Energy Agency) have estimated total supply (blue line) and total demand (red line) in their monthly OMR’s (Oil Market Reports). The diagram also shows the development of the oil price (black...

Given the current state of their region, you'd think the Western Governor's Association would have plenty of pressing issues to discuss. . . California can't pay its bills—funding for education, healthcare and welfare have already been cut as the state's deficit continues to balloon to over $24 billion. In all reality, state-paid workers could soon be paid with IOUs. The source of swine flu, now a global pandemic per the World Health Organization, lies right below Western states. And then there's the ongoing immigration and drug problems stemming from their southerly neighbor. Indeed, Western governors have much to worry about and prepare for. Yet conversation at the recent three-day Western Governor's Association meeting was largely dominated by water issues. The topic is gaining...

A couple of weeks ago an editorial in the Wall St. Journal called attention to a study by the Congressional Budget Office entitled, "The Impact of Ethanol Use on Food Prices and Greenhouse Gas Emissions." I finally found time to read the report and was surprised that, in addition to its main topic, it provides a useful analysis of the economics of ethanol manufacturing. Application of the CBO's rule of thumb correlating ethanol profitability to gasoline and corn prices goes a long way toward explaining the dismal current state of the industry, which has experienced a long string of bankruptcies in the last year--enough to warrant an entire conference devoted to that topic. The underlying dynamic in the ethanol sector turns out to be quite similar to one that has taught the oil refining ind...

Falls Church News-Press OnlineBy Tom Whipple A couple of weeks back the peak oil community received a letter from an officer serving with our forces in Iraq.Despite numerous distractions in Iraq these days, this officer is so concerned that peaking world oil production will soon become a serious problem that he began discussing the future of America's energy supply with soldiers in his unit. What he concluded has a message for us all.He found that most people have no trouble accepting the premises of peak oil- that there is a finite amount of crude underground, that the easy and cheap to extract oil is nearly gone and that world production will go into an unstoppable decline. The disconnect from reality, however, comes when contemplating the consequences of this event, for nearly all belie...

The June 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 2.0 MB, 28 pp). Figure 1 - Iraq crude oil & Liquids fuel production from January 2005 to May 2009. The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting Oilwatch Monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form. A summary and latest graphics below the fold. Latest Developments: 1) Conventional crude production - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administrat...

Oil markets seem unfazed by the unrest in Iran, in the aftermath of that country's Presidential election. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei, remain firmly in control, and there's no reason to expect that the ongoing demonstrations against perceived election fraud constitute a threat to Iranian oil exports. In that respect, the markets have it right. However, the conduct of the election--more than its outcome--may have altered the calculations of the nations determined to constrain Iran's nuclear ambitions, and may have inadvertently nudged Israel a step closer to acting on its own, should diplomatic efforts to halt nuclear enrichment remain stymied. But even a preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear complex might only result in a brief spike in oil prices, a...

tomdispatch.comBy Michael T. Klare    Every summer, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy issues its International Energy Outlook (IEO) -- a jam-packed compendium of data and analysis on the evolving world energy equation. For those with the background to interpret its key statistical findings, the release of the IEO can provide a unique opportunity to gauge important shifts in global energy trends, much as reports of routine Communist Party functions in the party journal Pravda once provided America's Kremlin watchers with insights into changes in the Soviet Union's top leadership circle.    As it happens, the recent release of the 2009 IEO has provided energy watchers with a feast of significant revelations. By far the...

McDermott International, Inc. announced yesterday that its Babcock & Wilcox subsidiary will begin marketing a 125 MW small-scale nuclear power plant design. Their press release also indicated that the company has a letter of intent from the Tennessee Valley Authority and a group of municipal utilities to use this technology. This development looks particularly interesting in the context of the debate over the proposed national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) in the Waxman-Markey Bill, along with another version of an RES in a new bill from the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee. However, if we really want to address climate change on a meaningful scale, then both bills should focus not on renewable electricity but on low-emission electricity.When I looked at the proposed RES...

The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) has further lowered its emissions projection for 2009 this month, as I said in May was likely. Lower coal consumption drives the reduction, based on the drop in industrial demand for fuel and the substitution by natural gas for coal for electricity generation. Coal Use Projected to Fall ~5% Building on the lower coal consumption trend of the first quarter, the EIA estimates coal demand to be ~5% lower in 2009. With oil and natural gas demand down ~3% and 2.2% (respectively), energy-related US carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall ~3.5%. Still room for lower emissions I still see room for even these projections to be overestimates. Coal consumption could remain almost 10% below 2008 levels due to the huge supply of natural gas and the cutbacks...

Falls Church News-Press OnlineBy Tom Whipple In the last few weeks there have been a number of developments that may provide an insight into the next few years - but first let's review.We, in America, are deep in the midst of a four-sided crisis. The first side is an economic slump; second, surprisingly, is our government's panicky efforts to stabilize the situation; third, the imminent peaking of fossil fuels and numerous other resources that seems to be in abeyance for the moment; and fourth, global warming which in the long run could overshadow the other three by a wide margin and is attracting considerable amounts of government and Congressional attention.The important point is that the four aspects of what could easily turn out to be the mega-crisis of the century are all interrelated...